台灣DARM產業預警模型之研究

台灣DRAM公司因產業特性經常發生財務危機，致公開市場投資人損失慘重，如何該產業發生危機前找出預警指標，為目前投資大眾所關心的議題。本研究乃針對上述議題進行探討，採取個案比較分析法，搜集台灣力晶、南科及茂德等三家DRAM公司歷史財務資料及非財務資料，瞭解其在公司經營績效產生危機前變化的情形。研究結果發現:負債比率、現金流量比率、總資產報酬率、速動比率為財務預警指標；董事長持股比例、董監事持投比例、經營能力、股價變化為非財務預警指標。本研究建構的模式可提供後續研究參考。

關鍵字

DRAM產業；預警指標；預警模式

並列摘要

DRAM industry in Taiwan were industrial properties recurrent financial crises, resulting in the open market investors suffered heavy losses, how to find out the industry before the crisis early warning indicators for the current issues of concern to the investing public. This study was designed to explore these topics, through case comparison analysis, collected from Nanya ,PSC,ProMOS in Taiwan. Science Park and the historical financial information of companies and non-financial information about their company's operating performance before the change in a crisis situation. The results showed: debt ratio, cash flow ratio, return on total assets, quick ratio for the financial early warning indicators; chairman of shareholdings, board members who voted, the operating capacity of early warning indicators of price changes in non-financial. Model constructed in this study can provide future studies.