台灣經濟發展初期以獎勵外人投資與擴張出口貿易為主要導向。自1980年代後期起,廠商為因應本國環境之變遷、降低生產成本等因素而展開海外投資行動,隨著對外直接投資的快速發展,對外直接投資對出口貿易之影響也受到廣泛的注意。對外直接投資是否會導致出口貿易的減少?兩者是替代或是互補關係?二者的關係是否會因產業別的不同而有所差異?這些均是本文所欲探討的內容。 本文參考Bergstrand(1989)所推導的引力模型為本研究模型設定之依據,再佐以追蹤資料分析法中的固定效果來分析自1993到2008年間,台灣紡織業與電子業上下游對外直接投資與出口之關係。此外,本文嘗試探討影響我國紡織業與電子業對外直接投資與出口之原因。 透過實證分析得知基本變數與出口之關係皆符合引力模型之預期:地主國實質國內生產毛額與貿易開放程度與台灣紡織業與電子業上下游出口額呈現顯著之正向關係;而地理距離為出口貿易之障礙,故與出口呈現顯著之負向關係;台灣紡織業與電子業上下游對外直接投資與出口呈現顯著之正向關係,意味著台灣紡織業與電子業上下游廠商以全球運籌作為對外直接投資之方針,不論是以降低生產成本、引進先進國家技術、提升外銷力等投資目的所進行的對外直接投資,均能帶動此二產業之出口額;此外,在台灣這兩個產業裡,並未發生對外直接投資取代本國出口之情形。
The main orientation in the beginning of Taiwan’s Economic development is to reward the foreign direct investment inflows and the export expansion. In response to the changes of their environment, reducing production costs and other factors, manufacturers have expanded overseas investment operations since the late of 1980s. With the rapid development of the foreign direct investment, the effect of foreign direct investment on export trade has been received widespread attention. The study is to concern whether the FDI outflow and export trade are substitutes or complements and whether there are differences among these two industries in Taiwan. We reference Bergstrand’s(1989) gravity model to set up our model. With the fixed effect for the panel data, we investigate the effects of foreign direct investment on the export trade of the Taiwan textile and electronic industry from 1993 to 2008. Besides, the article attempts to find out the reason for what will affect the FDI and export trade of Taiwan textile and electronic industry. Through the empirical analysis, we find the effects of basic variables on export trade that meet our expectations. We find the host countries’ real GDP and the openness of trade have positive and statistically significant signs for the export trade; while the distance has the opposite sign. According to the empirical evidences of this paper, the coefficient estimate for the FDI outflow is positive and statistically significant for the export trade of the Taiwan textile and electronic industry. It means that the manufacturers use the global logistics as the policy to operate the foreign direct investment. These firms operate FDI as a goal to reduce production costs, introducing the new technology from advanced countries which can increase in export trade. Besides, foreign direct investment doesn’t replace the export trade in the two industries in Taiwan.