摘要
回顧國際貨幣體系歷史可知，英鎊是18世紀至20世紀初國際貿易的主要貨幣，然而在歷經一次世界大戰後，美國經濟迅速崛起，讓美元與英鎊平分主權貨幣地位，貨幣體系局勢就此改變。在兩次戰爭期間，各國央行開始持有美元為外匯儲備，使之於1944年布雷頓森林體系後取代英鎊成為國際儲備貨幣。而在21世紀的今日，美元雖仍是主要國際儲備貨幣，但目前仍有歐元與之競爭，由於2008年發生金融危機，全球經濟陷入嚴重衰退，再次暴露了主權貨幣體系的缺失，目前美國面臨政府赤字逐年高居不下以及以信用方式印製貨幣藉此過度消費而造成美元流動性氾濫；歐洲希臘等諸國也面臨債務危機問題，這些情況將連帶造成該國幣值的不穩定，進而影響全球投資人與各國政府對主權貨幣的信心。然而在此同時，中國則是藉由高經濟成長的支撐，積極向外提升國際地位並逐步推行人民幣國際化為目標，使之長期成為國際儲備通貨。 以此本文分為兩部分進行探討，一是以國際貨幣體系演變的實例，分析人民幣國際化後，長期成為國際通貨的可能性；二是使用理論模型做為經濟基礎，說明當前美國與南歐國家因政府赤字與對外舉債日益漸增，將透過發行債券或印製貨幣來融通，使該國貨幣趨向貶值。由於此貨幣體系的缺失，使人民幣國際化後將與美元、歐元相互抵制競爭，讓國際貨幣體系朝向多元化的發展。
並列摘要
According to the history of international monetary system, we can know that the pound sterling was the prominent currency of the international trade from 18th to early 20th century. However, after World War I, the U.S. economy grew rapidly, which makes the dollar become the leading reserve currency and even shared the same sovereign status as sterling. In the 1920s, the central banks from different countries all held the dollar as foreign exchange reserves. In 1944, the dollar finally overtook sterling as the leading reserve currency. Nowadays, the dollar is the major reserve currency although there is an alternative, namely the euro. Nevertheless, the global financial crisis in 2008, which made the monetary system paralyzed, revealed the imperfection of monetary system. The U.S. faced not only the high budget deficits, but also the problems of the excessive liquidity of dollar and overly printing money. In addition, the countries in euro area, like Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain, now also have large budget deficits and debts; its currencies become instable and even depreciated. Furthermore, the central banks and global investors have no confidence in these currencies. On the other hand, China has turned into a major player in the international system recently based on its high-growth economy. China attempts to internationalize the renminbi and makes it one of the dominant reserve currency in the long run. This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part is an example of the evolution of international monetary system from a historical perspective in order to analyze the possibility of renminbi to become the leading reserve currency. Second, using a theoretical model from economical perspective to explain the situation that the U.S. and Europe government finance their heavy deficits and debts by issuing the bonds and printing more money, but cause the exchange rate to depreciate eventually. In summary, due to the flawed monetary system, the renminbi after its internationalization will rival the dollar and the euro as a prominent reserve currency, and let the international monetary system more multipolar.