台灣高爾夫業營收與營運資金供需季節指數關聯性之研究

The Interrelationship between Operating Revenues and Demand/Supply of Working Capital in Taiwan Golf Industry

唐傳宗(TANG, THOMAS)

指導教授 ： 古永嘉

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

資金是企業營運的根本，而無法即時獲得適量的營運資金為企業經營失敗
的主要原因之一。營運資金管理亦是財務主管經常性營運決策的核心工作，然
而，許多企業營運管理者常以簡單的資金流入扣除流出後做為未來短期營運資
金預測，目前並無有效的資金預測技術，因此很難將此轉換成現金流量預算的
知識。2008 年金融海嘯後導致全球經濟一連串地陷入谷底，多數財務體質不佳
之企業面臨倒閉危機，台灣高爾夫球桿製造產業該如何因應突如其來的衝擊？
營運資金管理在此時更突顯其重要性。本研究以台灣高爾夫球桿頭製造產業中
之大田、鉅明及明安三家公司於2001 年至2012 年之營收淨額、營運資金供給
金額、營運資金需求金額及營運資金缺口為研究變數，使用X-11 古典時間模型
分析此三家公司，其營運資金之季節指數波動是否有顯著的季節穩定性及移動
性變化效果，並以X-11 預測未來一年四項變數之季節指數波動趨勢與實際數比
較，做為預測效益評估之用，研究結果顯示：(1)三家公司在穩定性季節測試下，
營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額及資金缺口等四項變數都受
到淡旺季的顯著性影響。(2)三家公司中在移動性季節測試下，明安公司的營收
淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額及資金缺口等四項變數都受到淡
旺季的顯著性影響，大田公司的營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額受到淡
旺季的顯著性影響，而鉅明公司只有營收淨額受到淡旺季的顯著影響。

關鍵字

營運資金管理 ； 營收淨額 ； 營運資金供給金額 ； 營運資金需求金額 ； 資金缺口

並列摘要

Capital is the fundamental business operations. However, one of the main business failures is
that company can not get the right amount of working capital in time. Working capital management
is the core work of the recurring operating decisions for the chief financial officer. However, many
companies operating managers often simply use capital inflows deducted outflows as a forecast of
future short-term working capital. There is no effective financial forecasting technique, so it is
difficult to convert this knowledge into a cash flow budget. After the financial crisis in 2008, the
global economy in a series of hit the rock bottom. The majority of poor financial health of the
enterprise is closure by this threaten. How to react the sudden impact in the Taiwan Golf Head
industry is an important management at this time. This study uses three companies of golf head
manufacturing industry in Taiwan, O-Ta Precision Crop., Dynamic Crop. and Advanced
International Multitech Crop. The study for the period of year 2001 to 2012, a total of eleven years
with 149 samples uses the variables of net sales, working capital supply, the amount of working
capital requirements and operating funding gap. The study applies to the stepwise regression
analysis and the classic time series decomposition-X11 to analysis the data. The working capital
fluctuations in seasonal index have significant seasonal stability and mobility changes in effect, and
then using the X-11 to confirm the significance of four variables to predict the upcoming year the
seasonal index volatility trends. As predicted efficiency evaluation purposes, the results showed that:
(1) the three companies in the stability season test, net sales, working capital supply amount the
working capital requirements of the amount and the funding gap of four variables are subject to
significant influence of the short and peak season. (2) the three companies in the mobility season
IV
test, Advanced International Multitech Crop.'s net revenue, the amount of the supply of working
capital, the amount of working capital requirements and funding gap of four variables are subjective
to significant influence by the short and peak season. O-Ta Precision Crop.’s supply of working
capital amount, the amount of working capital requirements are significant impacted by the short
and peak season. Dynamic Crop.’s net sales is significant impacted by the short and peak season.

並列關鍵字

Working capital management ； net sales ； the amount of the supply of working capital ； theamount of working capital requirements ； funding gap

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