負盈餘公司價值動因之研究

An Study on Value Drivers of Loss Firms

黃瀞誼(Ching-I)

指導教授 ： 李淑華

國立臺北大學/商學院/會計學系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

近年來，全球經濟不景氣，產業競爭激烈，我國上市櫃公司面臨虧損之公司家數有逐年升高之趨勢，因此，對於評價負盈餘公司之議題愈顯重要。Jan and Ou (1995)發現正負盈餘公司，其盈餘與股價的關係並非同質，正盈餘公司之盈餘與股價為正相關，惟負盈餘公司之盈餘與股價為負相關。而Collins, Pincus and Xie (1999)提出在考量權益帳面價值變數後，存在負盈餘公司之異常現象即消失。但仍有文獻(黃正誠，1999；林嬌能，2000；Darrough and Ye, 2007)指出雖納入權益帳面價值後，其盈餘與股價間之負相關仍未消除，且負盈餘公司持續存在於市場，因而誘發本文研究動機，以研究發展支出、自有資金與籌資能力等三個觀點，探討負盈餘公司之價值動因。
本研究概分為二個實證階段。第一階段實證研究將測試樣本區分為全部樣本、負盈餘樣本及正盈餘樣本三組，以檢視在不同樣本下，其盈餘及權益帳面價值資訊與股價間之關係是否存在差異，實證方法採用Ohlson (1995)評價模式進行迴歸分析。第二階段實證研究延續第一階段，以盈餘組成要素之觀點出發，進一步將盈餘拆解為研發支出及扣除研發支出前之盈餘兩個主要盈餘組成要素，並考量權益帳面價值、公司持有內部資金之比重及募集資金能力，檢視前述價值動因對於股價是否具有攸關價值。且本研究於第二階段實證研究仍分為三組測試樣本(即為未限制有研發支出之三組樣本)，其中主要以負盈餘樣本為主，但亦納入全部樣本及正盈餘樣本供比較之用。此外，另將全部樣本限制於有研發支出之公司，且將限制有研發支出之樣本區分為全部樣本、負盈餘樣本及正盈餘樣本三組，檢視負盈餘公司持續存在之價值動因與股價間之關係，是否會因正負盈餘的不同而有不同的意涵。最後，考量產業特性差異，將有研發支出之正負盈餘樣本各分類為電子業與非電子業兩部分，共計四組次樣本，以檢視其評價結果是否存在不同之特性。本研究之實證結果彙整如下：
一、以未拆解盈餘組成要素觀點之評價結果本研究第一階段之實證結果顯示在台灣證券交易市場中，投資人評價正盈餘公司時，係同時重視盈餘及權益帳面價值資訊；而對負盈餘公司之評價重心則自盈餘移轉至權益帳面價值，但其盈餘與股價間之異常現象，並未因納入權益帳面價值而消除。
二、以拆解盈餘組成要素及負盈餘公司持續存在之價值動因觀點之評價結果
(一) 在未限制有研發支出之樣本下，投資人僅以權益帳面價值評價負盈餘公司；而正盈餘公司中之盈餘與權益帳面價值資訊同時為評價之重要變數，且該現象於限有研發支出之負盈餘樣本更加明顯。(二) 無論是否限制於有研發支出之樣本，研發支出對正負盈餘公司分別為負向及正向之評價反應。
(三)在未限制有研發支出之負盈餘樣本下，每股現金與股價呈顯著正相關，惟在限制有研發支出之負盈餘樣本中，其每股現金與股價間呈現正相關，但不顯著。進一步考量產業特性差異，實證結果發現每股現金對於股價之攸關性，以限制有研發支出之負盈餘電子業樣本最為明顯。
(四)針對企業籌資能力之實證結果，分述如下：
1.在未限制於有研發支出之負盈餘樣本下，公司發行公司債與股價呈正相關，但不顯著。惟在限制於有研發支出之負盈餘樣本下，其變數與股價間呈現顯著正相關，其中以限制於有研發支出之負盈餘電子業樣本的攸關性最高。
2.無論是否限制於有研發支出之樣本，負盈餘公司能藉由辦理現金增資方式滿足所需資金，在評價上皆為顯著正相關，其中以限制於有研發支出之負盈餘非電子業樣本最為顯著。
3.在未限制於有研發支出之負盈餘樣本下，固定資產占總資產之比率與股價呈顯著正相關，惟在限制於有研發支出之負盈餘樣本下，投資人視其固定資產占總資產之比率為非攸關資訊。
綜上所述，本研究發現評價負盈餘公司不僅應考量盈餘及權益帳面價值變數，若持續虧損之公司有投入研發活動，或其持有足夠之現金足以彌補虧損，或具有一定的募集資金能力，能紓解自身資金之需求時，這些影響評價負盈餘公司之價值動因皆對股價有正面之影響。

關鍵字

損失公司；負盈餘；價值動因；評價；研發支出；自有資金；籌資能力

並列摘要

Due to the global economic recession and highly competitive in industries in recently years, the number of deficit public companies goes slightly higher. So, how to evaluate loss firms is more important than before. Jan and Ou (1995) found that the relationship of earnings and stock price does not have same essences for profit (loss) firms. It means that earnings are positively associated with stock price for profit firms and vice versa. After considering the book value of equity, the abnormal phenomenon can be erased (Collins, Pincus and Xie, 1999). But some previous research suggests that the anomaly on the relationship between price and earnings of companies reporting negative earnings still exist. Therefore, our study will examine the value drivers of evaluating loss firms.
The purpose of this study was two-fold. The first purpose was to examine the association between earnings and stock prices by using the Ohlson model. The samples in this study were classified into three sample groups, which are total samples, positive earning firms and negative earning firms, to examine the possible differential impacts of earnings and book value of equity on stock price among the three sample groups.
Following the first stage, the second purpose was based on the view of earnings components, which R&D expenditures and earnings before R&D expenditures are main essential factors. This stage would also consider the book value of equity, holding of internal funds and ability of raising funds of the firm to examine their effective value on the stock price. Furthermore, the three groups are unrestricted R&D expenditures samples, which contain negative earnings samples mainly and also include total samples and positive earnings samples as comparison samples. Besides, we classified the samples into restricted positive R&D samples as well, including positive and negative earning firms, to examine if the relations between stock price and potential value drivers of loss firms would bring different implications by different earning firms. Finally, to evaluate the consideration of different industries, we classified R&D sample of positive-earning firms and negative-earning firms into four sub-samples, that are further sorted by electronic industry and non-electronic industry. The result of this stage includes:
1. Evaluation based on earnings valuation model
For profit firms, investors of Taiwan’s stock market take importance on earnings and the book value of equity. However, they focus more on the book value of equity instead of earnings for loss firms. But the abnormal relationship between earnings and stock prices will not disappear because of the book value of equity.
2. Evaluation based on the view of earning components and the maintenance of value drivers of loss firms
(1) According to the unrestricted positive R&D sample, investors focus on the book value of equity for loss firms only. Contrarily, they take importance the earnings and the book value of equity for profit firms. This phenomenon could be more obvious in restricted R&D sample.
(2) No matter R&D expenditures are restricted or not, the result shows that R&D expenditures are positively (negatively) associated with stock price for loss (profit) firms, In other words, R&D expenses are relevant information and engaging in R&D activities could be helpful at creating future earnings.
(3) In unrestricted positive R&D sample, we find that the coefficient estimate on cash per share is significantly positive for loss firms but insignificantly different from zero in unrestricted positive R&D sample of loss firms. Besides, considering the difference of industry specifics, the result shows that cash per share is more relevant for loss firms in electronic industry.
(4) For the proxy of the ability of raising funds, we found the evidence that issuing bonds are more relevant to restricted positive R&D of negative-earning sample, especially for electronic industry. Equity issuance is always positive to stock price and most relevant to electronic firms across all samples. Besides, the fixed assets/total assets are positively associated with stock price for restricted R&D sample of positive-earnings firms, especially for non-electronic industry. Therefore, if the earnings or samples are not classified, it will be difficult to understand why these loss firms still operate and the implication behind.
In summary, the factors of evaluating loss firms would not limited on earnings or book value of equity thoroughly. For example, loss firms could recover from involving in R&D activities, holding sufficient internal funds for compensating the loss, or ability of raising funds, which could be positive for both valuation on loss firms and stock prices.

並列關鍵字

loss firms； negative earnings； value drivers； valuation； R&D；internal funds；ability of raising funds

參考文獻

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