台灣人口老化對房價與總體經濟的影響

Impacts of Aging Population on Housing Prices and Macroeconomics of Taiwan

吳明倫(Ming-Lun Wu)

指導教授 ： 劉曦敏

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

本研究在探討台灣地區人口老化現象對於房價、所得、房貸利率、失業率和物價等總體經濟變數的影響，期望能及早對日益加劇的老化問題提出因應對策。本文首先對各變數1993~2013的季資料進行單根檢定，然後以OLS估計出變數為定態的複迴歸模型；接著嘗試找尋總體經濟變數間可能的共整合關係，並將均衡誤差項加入前述的複迴歸模型中，以增加長期資訊、提升模型的解釋能力；最後進行1997年到2008年間的重大經濟事件（如：亞洲金融風暴、網路泡沫、次級房貸風暴）造成的結構性變動分析。結果顯示，人口老化會造成台灣地區房價上揚、經濟成長減緩、房貸利率下跌、失業率攀升、及通貨膨脹率下降。而這些人口老化的影響，在亞洲金融風暴、網路泡沫、及次級房貸風暴的衝擊發生後不時出現相反的情況。至於在未來的因應對策方面，政府應該持續加強打壓房市的政策力道，以抑制因人口老化而造成的房價上揚。另一方面，政府也需不斷地以有效的政策來提振經濟（如：美國的量化寬鬆、日本的安倍三箭、歐洲央行的負利率作為），以避免因步入高齡社會而造成的長期經濟蕭條。

關鍵字

總體經濟 ； 房價 ； 人口老化

並列摘要

The object of this research is to find the impacts of aging population on housing prices and some macroeconomic variables, such as income, mortgage interest rate, unemployment rate, and inflation rate in Taiwan. Then, we can propose solutions in advance. First, this thesis examines whether the quarterly data of 1993~2013 for considered variables are stationary or not. Then, multiple regressions using stationary variables are estimated by OLS. Next, cointegration relationships among macroeconomic variables are investigated. The discovered equilibrium errors, catching the long-term information, are added to the multiple regressions to raise these models’ explaining power. Finally, the impacts of aging population during some significant economic-event periods between 1997 and 2008 are explored. The results show that aging population would make housing prices and unemployment rates go up, but make economic growth rates, mortgage interest rates and inflation rates go down. However, these effects caused by aging population on Taiwan’s housing prices and macroeconomics may be different after the incidents of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 have occurred. To cope with the higher housing prices resulted from aging population, the government should reinforce her policy of keeping the prices within a reasonable range. On the other hand, the government shall continue adopting expansionary policies (e.g., the quantitative easing of the U.S., Abenomics of Japan, and negative interest rates of Europe) to stimulate the economy, so that the long-term recessions caused by aging population can be avoided in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

macroeconomics ； housing price ； aging

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