綠色能源科技與減碳效益之選擇價值評估之研究

Green Energy Technology Development and The Carbon Benefits of Emission Reduction on CO2 price uncertainty：A Real Option Analysis

劉恆齊(Heng-Chi Liu)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本研究主要依據永續能源政策綱領之低碳與無碳能源發展目標，評估溫室氣體脫鉤與平均發電成本衝擊之效果，並納入碳價不確定性下之實質選擇權模型，分析其各時點之減碳淨效益與策略選擇。此外，同時考量綠色能源科技進步，引入學習效果與學習曲線。研究發現，綠色能源科技發展之下，其溫室氣體脫鉤效果顯著以及發電成本影響甚大。結果：(1)2025年低碳能源配比55%之下，二氧化碳密集度由19.5公噸/百萬元下降至10.35公噸/百萬元，平均發電成本由2.25元/度上升至9.99元/度；(2)2025年低碳能源配比57%之下，二氧化碳密集度由19.5公噸/百萬元下降至9.64公噸/百萬元，平均發電成本由2.25元/度上升至5.73元/度；(3) 二氧化碳密集度由19.5公噸/百萬元下降至9.06公噸/百萬元，平均發電成本由2.25元/度上升至10.45元/度；(4) 最適策略選擇為在低碳能源配比達2020年之政策情境規劃後，即延遲或停止政策實行。

關鍵字

綠色能源科技 ； 減碳效益 ； 溫室氣體脫鉤 ； 發電成本 ； 實質選擇權分析

並列摘要

Promoting green energy technology(such as renewable energy, LNG, CHP and nuclear etc.)is the key greenhouse gas(GHG) mitigation policy and measure all over the world. Under the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidance, there was a low carbon energy technology development target (no less then 55%)will be achieve to response GHG mitigation in 2025 by government of Taiwan. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of GDP decoupling with GHG emission as well as how electricity cost changes by green energy technology development in Taiwan. This paper use the real option analysis to assess the CO2 benefits of emission reduction on CO2 price uncertainty and the option value of policy decision for decision maker how to choice at any time point. Result indicate: CO2 indeed decouple with economic growth when electricity generation share of low carbon energy goes up, and we are going to see (1)CO2 intensity decrease from 19.5 tCO2/MNT$(in 2007) to 10.35 tCO2/MNT$(in 2025) if electricity generation share of low carbon energy reach 55%; (2)CO2 intensity decrease from 19.5 tCO2/MNT$(in 2007) to 9.06tCO2/MNT$(in 2025) if electricity generation share of low carbon energy reach 60%. However, electricity cost also accompany with electricity generation share of low carbon energy will increase as well, i.e. (3)Cost of electricity increase from 2.25 NT$/kWh(in 2008) to 9.99 NT$/kWh(in 2025) if electricity generation share of low carbon energy reach 55%; (4) Cost of electricity increase from 2.25 NT$/kWh(in 2008) to 10.45 NT$/kWh(in 2025) if electricity generation share of low carbon energy reach 60%.(5)in our case, the policy must stop or wait in 2020 by real option analysis.

並列關鍵字

Green Energy Technology Development ； The Carbon Benefits of Emission Reduction ； CO2 Decoupling ； Electricity Costs ； Real Option

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