- 學位論文
應用層級分析法於國軍廢彈處理風險管理
Analytic Hierarchy Process for Risk Management of Military Discarded Ammunition
摘要
我國彈藥庫分佈密度居全球之冠，許多彈藥更是80年代存留之彈藥品，故超過彈藥保存期限之比例甚高。面對如此高比重的過期彈藥，處理廢彈的程序或方法，也具有高度的重要性。如何有效降低廢彈處理過程中可能面臨的風險，是非常重要的議題。 本研究針對廢彈處理過程，萃取相關重要性的風險指標，以期能提供廢彈處理單位，一套有效風險管理之參考依據。首先，藉由我國國軍準則-聯勤-0012-0002「廢彈處理標準作業程序」中，所提出的危安意外因子，作為分析的基礎。接著，使用「結構式」問卷，對「17」位專家進行訪談，衡量專家對於風險因子重要性的認知。使用層級分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP），透過因子間相對重要程度，以客觀的方式，萃取出重要的風險因子。 研究結果顯示廢彈處理的風險因素中對「履約管理」和「作業場所」的權重最高，可作為管理者考量如何降低廢彈處理風險上之參考。「承商未依約完成機具購建」，與「未依合約期限完成而趕工」為履約管理上的要點，若能確實落實與管理，則將能有效降低因履約問題而產生之風險。而「作業時遇大雷雨」及「銷燬場地未依安全規定設置」為作業場所因素上之要點，場地是用來進行廢彈處理的，故必須依安全規定整理至定位，將能有效降低由作業場所產生的危安問題發生機率。
並列摘要
The country’s ammunition depot distribution ranks among the top in the world. As many ammunition items were left behind from the 80s, a large portion of them have already exceeded the shelf life of the ammunition. Faced with such a high proportion of expired ammunition, the scrap ammunition disposal processes or methods are of utmost importance. Therefore, how to reduce the risks effectively in scrap ammunition disposal is a very important issue indeed. Focusing on the scrap ammunition disposal process, the study had extracted the important relevant risk indictors with the hope to provide the scrap ammunition disposal unit an effective reference basis in risk management. First of all, the safety and risk accident factors in “Standard Operation Procedures of Scrap Ammunition Disposal” provided by the country’s military standards – Combined Service Force – 0012-0002 were used as the analysis basis. Followed up, the “structured” questionnaire was employed to conduct with an interview with 17 experts to measure their perceptual knowledge on the important risk factors. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was then used to extract the important risk factors objectively through the important extent among the factors. The research findings showed that “compliance performance” and “workplace” had accounted the highest weights, and so could be considered as references for the managing personnel on how to lower the management risks in scrap ammunition disposal. The “contractor did not compliant in purchasing and constructing the equipment according to contract” and “rush job due to unable to finish the work according to contract deadline” werekey points in compliance management. If they could be implemented and managed precisely, the risks caused by compliance management issue could then be reduced. The “encounter of thunderstorms during the operation” and the “destruction site did not layout according to safety regulations” were the key factors at the workplace. As the site is meant for scrap ammunition disposal, they must therefore be worked up and orientated according to safety regulations before the critical risk incidence issue generated at the workplace could be reduced effectively.