全台空氣品質之動態趨勢與關聯

Dynamic Trend and Correlation of Air Quality in Taiwan

徐正翰(Cheng-Han Hsu)

指導教授 ： 丁承

國立交通大學/管理學院/經營管理研究所/碩士(2019年)

摘要

過去社會科學針對空氣品質研究多建構於靜態關聯分析，本文以動態觀點切入空氣品質之管理，以環保署全台一般空氣監測站作為樣本，採用空氣品質指標RAQI進行品質衡量，納入區域性與行政區層級兩項調節變數，針對不同置入變數分別設計無條件式成長模型、條件式成長模型與分段成長模型。結論發現2007年至2016年間整體空氣品質逐年改善，區域性與行政區層級具有顯著調節作用，未發現移動汙染源與固定汙染源數量對空氣品質惡化的直接關聯，法規措施的修正與監督對空氣污染的改善則具有顯著影響。其表明透過環境法規的規範去改善空氣品質會是較佳的途徑。
本論文旨在台灣空氣品質之趨勢觀察與研究，有以下幾點研究限制：（1）因無法取得能源電廠資料故予以忽略；（2）著重於台灣整體空氣品質成長趨勢，因而簡化資料樣本而無法有效反映短時間之空氣汙染變動；（3）自變數受模型特性而有所限制，無法同時納入考量。期望透過本研究的結果，能提供空氣品質改善的建議與方向。

關鍵字

空氣品質 ； 成長模型 ； 動態關聯 ； 移動汙染源 ； 固定汙染源 ； 環境法規

並列摘要

In the past, social science research focused on air quality was mostly based on static correlation analysis. This article takes a dynamic point of view into the air quality management. Using the general air monitoring station data from the Taiwan environmental protection administration and air quality index, RAQI, I apply the unconditional growth model, conditional growth model and piecewise growth model under different modulators and time-varying variables. In conclusion, the overall air quality from 2007 to 2016 improved year by year. Moreover, the growth trend is significantly modulated by the regional characteristics and administrative level. There is no evidence that shows the negative and direct dynamic correlation with the number of mobile and stationary air pollution sources. In contrast, the revision and implementation of environmental regulations have a significant effect on the improvement of air quality. It indicates that improving air quality through environmental regulations will be a better way.
This thesis aims to observe and study the trend of air quality in Taiwan. There are following limitations on research: (1) Ignoring the impact of energy plants because of the inability to obtain relative data; (2) Simplifying samples and failing to effectively reflect the change of the air pollution in short time; (3) Inputting single time-variant variables respectively under the restrictions of the growth model. Through the results of this study, it provides the direction and suggestions for air quality improvement.

並列關鍵字

Air Quality ； Growth Model ； Dynamic Relationship ； Mobile Air Pollution Sources ； Stationary Air Pollution Sources ； Environmental Regulation

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