下一代軍用飛行器研發資源配置之研究

A Study on R&D Resource Allocation for Next Generation Military Aircraft Development

齊立平(Li-Pin Chi)

指導教授 ： 黃仁宏

國立交通大學/管理學院/管理科學系所/博士(2019年)

摘要

對於國家研究機構來說，設計一個特定的高投資成本產品，預算通常是「大但有限」。當產品與一個國家的安全和軍事可持續性相關時，這一問題就變得至關重要。針對此一問題，本研究提出了一個系統化的「預算知識發現教育框架」（BKDEF）。
「預算知識發現教育框架」使用多種多標準決策方法，例如：Delphi，AHP和數據驅動決策（DDDM），此一模型可用於大型研發專案資源分配的知識發現;它採用4個階段有系統地探究研發案例。本研究探討了兩個經驗案例，即中高空長時間滯空無人機系統（MALE UAS）和新一代軍用飛機開發。透過「預算知識發現教育框架」的運作，我們可以實際地獲得針對新式軍用飛機研發預算配置決策實務中所需的知識集合，同時根據決策群體意見分配新式軍用飛機研發預算。此外，「預算知識發現教育框架」可以發現預算全體決策者之間的同質性與異質性意見群組。最後，我們對兩個經驗案例的結果進行一些討論。
兩個實際案例證明了「預算知識發現教育框架」的有效性。 「預算知識發現教育框架」涉及幾個主要的教學階段，用於構建和確認決策制定標準，建立決策層級，評估決策者（DM）的優先結構（單獨或基於群體），並執行一些決策分析決策組中的意見。

關鍵字

中高空長時間滯空無人機系統研發 ； 下一代戰鬥機研發 ； 多準則決策 ； 預算知識發現教育框架 ； 德爾菲法 ； 層級分析法 ； 數據驅動決策

並列摘要

For national research institution to design a specific high investment cost product, the budget is usually ‘large but limited’. Such a problem becomes crucial when the product is relevant to the security and military sustainability for a nation. This study proposed a systematic ‘budgeting knowledge discovery educational framework’ (BKDEF).
The BKDEF uses several multi-criteria decision-making methods, such as: Delphi, AHP, and data driven decision-making (DDDM), to support a knowledge discovery model that can use to allocate resources; it adopts 4 phases to explore R&D cases systematically. Two empirical cases, Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance Unmanned Aerial System (MALE UAS) and new generation military aircraft development, were explored in this study. With the BKDEF, we can obtain the sets of knowledge that is practically required in the decision practice to allocate the budget for new generation aircraft designs, upon the group-opinion basis. In addition, the BKDEF can discover the homogeneity and heterogeneity among the budgeting decision makers. Finally, we have some discussions about the results of the two empirical cases.
The two empirical cases demonstrate the effectiveness of the BKDEF. The BKDEF involves several main tutorial phases to construct and confirm the set of decision-making criteria, to establish a decision hierarchy, to assess the preferential structures of the decision makers (DMs) (individually or on a group basis), and to perform some decision analyses about the opinions in the decision group.

並列關鍵字

MALE UAS R&D ； next generation fighter R&D ； multi-criteria decision making ； budgeting knowledge discovery educational framework (BKDEF) ； Delphi ； AHP ； data driven decision-making (DDDM)

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