降低郵輪場站旅客擁擠程度模式之研究― 以基隆港為例

隨著郵輪產業興起需求增加，郵輪場站開始發生擁擠的問題，根據郵輪旅客特性發現造成瓶頸點發生的原因與旅客到達型態有很大關係，因此本研究主要探討如何利用即時旅客到達率及改善策略來降低場站內的擁擠問題並降低旅客等候時間。本研究中建構「降低郵輪場站擁擠模式」，其中包括預測模組、場站等候模組以及降低擁擠策略模組。本研究建立預測模組使用長短期記憶網路方法(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)預測郵輪旅客到達率；建立場站等候模組計算場站擁擠程度以及旅客等候時間；藉由調整場站內設施數量以及影響場站外未來旅客到達數量達到不同改善擁擠問題效果。依照停靠多艘郵輪以及不同郵輪公司區分資料，藉由模擬兩種不同資料特性評估改善後結果，分別在平均場站內人數減少38.2%及9.5%，平均旅客等候時間可降低44.4%及22.1%。另外以敏感度分析調整擁擠條件及影響旅客比例，分析應用模式前後場站內平均旅客數及平均旅客等候時間的改善程度。由本研究的實證研究中可知，對於不同參數設定對於改善擁擠問題的效益有不同幅度，因此可以根據場站條件與通關狀況針對參數及限制進行調整。

關鍵字

郵輪旅客；即時；長短期記憶網路方法；串聯排隊網路；降低擁擠策略

並列摘要

As the demand of the cruise industry increasing, there are the problem of crowding in cruise terminals. According to the feature of cruise passengers, the reason causes the bottleneck points is closely related to passenger arrival patterns, therefore, this study mainly discusses how to use real-time passenger arrival rates and improvement strategies to alleviate crowding in terminals and reduce passenger waiting times. In this study, a "reducing cruise station crowding model" is constructed, which includes a prediction module, a station waiting module, and a crowding reduction strategy module. In this study, a prediction module is used to predict the arrival rate of cruise passengers using a long short-term memory (LSTM) method; a station waiting module is established to calculate the station crowding degree and passenger waiting time; by adjusting the facilities in the terminal and the number of passengers arriving outside the station will achieve different effects of improving congestion. According to the classification data of multiple cruise ships and different cruise companies, the improvement results are evaluated by simulating two different data characteristics, and the number of people in the average station is reduced by 38.2% and 9.5%, and the average passenger waiting time can be reduced by 44.4% and 22.1%. In addition, the sensitivity analysis is used to adjust the congestion conditions and the proportion of affecting passengers, and analyze the improvement of the average number of passengers in the terminal and the average passenger waiting time before and after the model application. It can be seen from the empirical research of this study that different parameter settings have different magnitudes for improving the congestion problem, so the parameters and restrictions can be adjusted according to the station conditions and customs clearance conditions.

並列關鍵字

Cruise passengers ； Real-time ； LSTM ； Tandem queue ； Crowding reduction strategy

參考文獻

Alodhaibi, S., Burdett, R. L., &Yarlagadda, P. K. D. V. (2019). Impact of passenger-arrival patterns in outbound processes of airports. Procedia Manufacturing, 30, 323–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2019.02.046

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Bellizzi, M. G., Eboli, L., Forciniti, C., &Mazzulla, G. (2018). Air Transport Passengers’ Satisfaction: An Ordered Logit Model. Transportation Research Procedia, 33, 147–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2018.10.087

Bouyakoub, S., Belkhir, A., Bouyakoub, F., &Guebli, W. (2017). Smart airport: an IoT-based Airport Management System. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Future Networks and Distributed Systems, 17, 45. https://doi.org/10.1145/3102304.3105572

Douaioui, K., Fri, M., Mabrouki, C., &Semma, E. A. (2018). Smart port: Design and perspectives. Proceedings - GOL 2018: 4th IEEE International Conference on Logistics Operations Management, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/GOL.2018.8378099

國際替代計量

降低郵輪場站旅客擁擠程度模式之研究― 以基隆港為例

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