公共資本與台灣經濟成長

Public Capital and Taiwan Economic Growth

許晉輔(Chin-Fu Hsu)

指導教授 ： 朱雲鵬

國立中央大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2007年)

摘要

內生成長理論知名學者Paul Romer與Robert Lucas，認為人力資本係重要成長引擎，Aghion-Howitt與Grossman-Helpman著重於研究發展及知識技術創新在經濟成長中所扮演的角色，而Barro與Fisher-Turnovsky則認為政府扮演成長中重要的角色。本文修改 Sedgley模型，同時考慮上述諸項目，亦即人力資本、知識資本與公共資本，將此三種資本與民間部門資本共列後，再加上「公共政度」 (以貪污指數表示)之影響，進行實證分析。
由於生產力是一種長期的現象，不應受到短期的暫時性衝擊影響，本文先採用由黃鍔所提出的Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT)方法中的經驗模態分析法 (Empirical Mode Decomposition)處理，將短期影響由變數中分離出來，其後，考慮內生性問題的存在，本文使用向量誤差修正模型 (vector error correction model, VECM)作為實證分析工具。OLS實證結果發現公共資本之產出彈性為0.026，而VECM結果發現經濟成長與上述諸變數間存有共整合關係，而由共整合向量可看出，知識資本的產出彈性為0.234，民間部門資本產出彈性為0.446，公共資本產出彈性為0.577，人力資本產出彈性為0.185，政府制度產出彈性為0.146，除公共資本產出彈性較文獻稍偏高外，其餘變數之產出彈性與文獻相比皆落在合理範圍內。

關鍵字

公共制度 ； 向量誤差修正模型 ； 經驗模態分析 ； 內生成長理論

並列摘要

Paul Romer and Robert Lucas, the famous economist in endogenous growth theory, assume human capital is the primary growth engine. Aghion-Howitt and Grossman-Helpman focus on the role of R&D and innovation in growth. Barro and Fisher-Turnovsky assume the government is the important role in growth. In empirical analysis, this paper modify Sedgley’s model and join above-mention capitals (i.e. human capital, knowledge capital and public capital), private capital and institution (substituted by corruption index) simultaneously.
Because productivity is a long-term economy phenomenon, the short-term impulse can not influence it. This paper also use the Empirical Mode Decomposition, the primary method of Hilbert-Huang Transform developed by Huang, to decompose the short-term impulse from the original data. In order to avoid the endogeneity problem, I use the vector error correction model as the empirical analysis tool. With the OLS empirical result, the output elasticity of public capital is 0.026. With the VECM empirical result, we can conclude that these six variable are cointegrated and the cointegration vector present that the output elasticity of knowledge capital is 0.234, private capital is 0.446, public capital is 0.577, human capital is 0.185 and institution is 0.146. Except the output elasticity of public capital is larger than literatures, the elasticity of other variables which compared to literatures are in the reasonable range.

並列關鍵字

VECM ； EMD

參考文獻

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