探討職災型態的變遷及職災率與景氣循環之關係

Investigating the long term change of injury pattern and the association between injury incidence and business cycle

蔡衍真(Yen-Chen Tsai)

指導教授 ： 張東生

國立中央大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/博士(2015年)

摘要

從總體宏觀的角度，探討職災型態的變遷以及景氣循環如何影響職災率的機制。

第一部份係針對1996-2012期間，台灣製造業通報之92,577職災案例，利用對應分析、集群分析與Kruskal–Wallis test探討職災嚴重度、事故類型與致傷媒介物是否有顯著變化與差異；第二部份則以2002/01-2013/12的月資料探討景氣循環如何影響礦業與土石採取業、製造業、營造業、批發零售業、餐飲住宿業的職災率以及解釋職災率與景氣循環關連性背後的機制。

結果顯示：景氣循環與產業結構變化，造成嚴重度、事故類型與致傷媒介物等職災型態在不同的時期有顯著不同嚴重度、事故類型與致災媒介物的差異，而1%的景氣指標變化約可觀察到職災率0.2-0.3%的變化，至於三組六個解釋因素當中，只有工時的變化與職災率的變化顯著相關，顯示作業步調與疲勞是造成職災率與景氣循環發生關連的關鍵因素，人力資本組成與勞資關係則非關鍵因素。

以上發現顯示，由於職災特性會隨產業結構變遷與生產作業方式變革而產生變化，因此職災預防與勞動檢查也必須隨著調整重點；另外以往研究多半認定安全績效係內生變數，研究顯示安全績效會受外生景氣循環影響，因此相關研究與比較必須注意與釐清脈絡因素諸如景氣循環與產業結構變化的影響。

關鍵字

事故類型 ； 致災媒介物 ； 景氣循環 ； 產業結構 ； 職災率

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the long-term changes of occupational injury patterns and how injury incidence is associated with business cycle from macro perspective. In the fist stage, correspondence analysis was applied to chart longitudinal changes in occupational injury patterns (including severity, accident type, and source of injury) based on 92,577 cases reported by manufacturing firms in Taiwan between 1996 and 2012. Cluster analysis revealed three phases for injury severity and two for accident type and source of injury. The Kruskal–Wallis test revealed whether and which injury severity, accident type and source of injury had significant difference among different phases.
In the second stage, empirical evidences showed that economic fluctuation influence injury incidence positively and 1% change in business cycle indicator resulted in 02-0.3% change in injury incidence across various industries including mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and food service activities in Taiwan. In addition, among the explanatory factors tested, only working hour and overtime were found to be significant, whereas indicators of labor composition and relation were not. Economic fluctuation accompanies with varying in workload and pace contributes to the increasing in injury incidence via fatigue and probability to miss operation.
Injury prevention and precautionary measures must be implemented in response to the influence of contextual factors, such as the change of industrial characteristics and business cycle.

並列關鍵字

accident type ； injury source ； business cycle ； industrial structure ； injury incidence

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