- 學位論文
以BenMAP評估六輕停工的空氣汙染變動與健康衝擊
Assessment of shutdown of sixth naphtha cracker complex of changes in air pollution and health impacts by using BenMAP
摘要
本篇研究利用2010年7月25日六輕大火事件停工檢修的契機，假設六輕停工一年，並使用結合環境研究與經濟學的工具—BenMAP，進行實驗組停工檢修(2010年7月26日~8月1日)與對照組正常營運期間(2010年7月18日~8月24日)估計，推算臭氧(O3)與細懸浮微粒( PM2.5)汙染物濃度變動的幅度對全台民眾健康之衝擊。 研究結果顯示六輕停工檢修與前一周正常營運期間相比，全台臭氧濃度下降約16.49 ppb，汙染改善幅度最大的地區集中於高屏與雲嘉南空氣品質區，其他上呼吸道疾病（ODUR）的就診人數分別平均將減少一萬七千件，獲得約兩千六百萬元的健康效益，急性呼吸道感染（ARI）的就診數也因臭氧汙染改善而減少約962,391件，其95%信賴區間為(750,823, 1,160,048)，並獲得平均約十四億元的健康效益；而全台 的濃度降低4.57μg/m^3 ，平均減少約一千九百至兩千兩百件的死亡衝擊，死亡率將降低約1.3%至1.5%。 此外，本研究採取加總整合衡量方法進行健康衝擊與效益的加總。結果顯現，假設六輕停工一年，將使空氣汙染情形與民眾的健康與經濟效益產生變動：臭氧汙染改善導致呼吸道疾病次分類的平均就診人數減少979,567(628,340, 1,229,031)人，平均獲得約十四億元的健康效益； PM2.5濃度降低對於死亡人數的衝擊將平均減少2,015人，獲得約四百二十億元的健康效益。
並列摘要
Based on an assumption of shutting down of Formosa Petrochemical Corporation’s (FPCC) sixth naphtha cracker complex, we used the software of BenMAP to estimate the impacts and benefits of air quality on health associated with changes of Ozone and PM2.5 under baseline scenario—July 18, 2010-July 24, 2010 and control scenario—July 26, 2010-August1, 2010. Compared to its normal business operation, we found that the changes of Ozone were associated with the decrease of 17,176 ODUR treatments and 962,391ARI treatments on average. Using health impact functions, we estimated that 1,907 all-cause deaths could be prevented with reductions in the concentration of PM2.5. Furthermore, we used the method of aggregation, pooling and valuation to sum up the health impacts and benefits. The results showed that compared to normal business operation, there were some changes in air qualities and health if FPCC’s sixth naphtha cracker complex shut down: The concentration of Ozone decreased 16.49 ppb, resulting in the decreasing of 181,386 ODUR and ARI treatments and benefiting approximately 14 billion dollars. Health benefited 420 billion under the condition of decreasing of the concentration of PM2.5.