建立台灣地區縱火犯靜態再犯危險評估量表(TASRRAS)之研究

The Establishment Study for Taiwan Arson Static Recidivism Risk Assessment Scale

洪聖儀(Sheng-I Hung)

指導教授 ： 林明傑

國立中正大學/教育學院/犯罪防治學系/博士(2015年)

摘要

縱火防治是世界各國必須投注心力、長期持續關注的社會議題，因所需成本低、易於實施、成功率高及危害性大，往往造成生命財產重大損失。然而經過司法處遇的縱火犯常仍惡習未改而再犯縱火，國內目前尚無相關危險評估量表供參酌。本研究採用融合研究法(mixed methods)結合量化與質性的方法來建立「台灣地區縱火犯靜態再犯危險評估量表」。研究發現如下： 一、縱火前科犯量化研究部分：篩選消防署2000年至2004年6月間(計4.5年)建檔之縱火前科犯資料庫226名為研究對象，追蹤至2014年6月止所觸犯之各項刑案資料(平均12.3年)，研究結論如下： （一）縱火再犯特性與分類：台灣地區縱火犯之再犯縱火者共40名，再犯率為17.7％，研究對象以男性為主（占90％），平均年齡34.7歲；教育程度以國中、高中(職)為主；犯案地點集中都市化較高區域；縱火再犯間隔時間逐次縮短。群集分析結果可命名為偶發衝動型(占58.4％)、毒品暴力型(占35.5％)及高危險精障型(6.3％)縱火犯等三群集，再犯率分別12％、16％、86％。 （二）縱火再犯因子分析：以有無縱火再犯為依變項與縱火因子為自變項進行相關性分析(包含卡方、相關係數及關聯係數)，初步分析發現有6個題項與縱火再犯可能有所關聯，分別為犯罪多元性、昔日玩火經驗、精神異常、縱火次數、逗留現場習慣及藥物濫用前科，加權後ROC曲線面積達0.978，預測效果佳。 （三）靜態再犯危險評估：將上述6題項進行因素分析，抽取出兩個構念，分別為「精神與玩火經驗」及「犯罪與吸毒」，與原先研究結果及題項具有一致性，計算一年、五年及十年追蹤期間之危險評估量表ROC值分別為0.785、0.912及0.965。 二、質性訪談部分：7位專家學者針對學術研究或偵辦經驗分享、縱火再犯者成長背景與生活經驗、探討縱火再犯因子、縱火再犯者分類與危險評估及未來縱火再犯防治工作等五大面向提出見解，有助於瞭解縱火再犯者更深層的內心世界。最後將訪談資料詮釋與分析結果與本研究所建立之「台灣地區縱火犯靜態再犯危險評估量表」相互對照與驗證。 本論文根據研究結果，提出五項縱火防治對策包括重視早年家庭生活經驗、學校應擬定縱火應變對策、改善社會相關環境、消防政策應重視縱火議題研究及專業矯正制度以降低縱火再犯率，期望有效減少縱火者發生再犯，保障人民生命財產安全。

關鍵字

縱火防治 ； 再犯預測 ； 縱火

並列摘要

Arson prevention is an import social issue for every country, since it’s low cost, high successful rate, and high harm for lives. It was always found that some arsons were done by repeat arsonists, but there is no arsonist risk assessment scale till now. This research applied the mixed methods, which combined with quantitative and qualitative methods, to research the recidivism risk assessment among arsonists in Taiwan. Regarding the quantitative portion, 226 arsonists between the dates of January/1/2000and June/30/2004 were collected and they were tracked to June of 2014 (averagely the tracking term is 12.3 years). They association statistics were used to screen the risk markers and the ROC was used to assess the accuracy of the risk assessment scale. The results of the research were as the followings.
1.Trait and clusters of recidivist: Totally the recidivism rate was 17.7%. Among the recidivists, the average age was 34.7 and the education level was firstly in junior high school and secondly in senior high school, including occupational school. The arson scenes were mostly in higher urbanized areas. The repeat time of each arson among the repeat arsonists were become closer over time. Three clusters were identified and they were intermittent impulse cluster (58.4% of total recidivists), drug violent cluster(35.5%), and high risk mental disorder cluster(6.3%), and the recidivism of them were 12%, 16%, and 86%, respectively.
2.Risk markers association analysis: Totally six risk markers were identified significantly associated with repeat arson. They are multiple criminality, past playing fire experience, mental disorders, the number of arson, the stay at the arson scene, and the record of drug abuse.
3.Factor analysis and the accuracy of scale: The factors were identified by factor analysis, and they were “mental and fire play experience” and “criminality and drug abuse”. The ROC of the one, five, and ten years tracking term were found .78 , .91 , and .96 ,respectively.
4.The qualitative data: Seven experts were interviewed on the topics of early experience, risk markers, arson classification and risk assessment, and future prevention. Then qualitative and quantitative data were cross examined.

In the end, based on the research result, the author submitted five prevention strategies to reduce the arson and make community safer. They are valuing the early family life experience, establishing arson response system among schools, amending social related environment, valuing arson prevention among fire departments, establishing better correction and supervision programs to reduce recidivism.

並列關鍵字

arson prevention ； recidivism prediction ； arson

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