台灣參與區域全面經濟夥伴協定之研究

The Study of Taiwan Participating in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

林育志(YU-CHIH LIN)

指導教授 ： 趙文志

國立中正大學/社會科學院/戰略暨國際事務研究所/碩士(2016年)

摘要

核算2013年對台灣前五大貿易國家中，具《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》（RCEP）會員國身份者，貿易總額高達3,192億美元，占台灣貿易總額55%，總出口比重65.2%，總進口比重達到44.5%。台灣對RCEP會員國之間的經貿往來關係之高、互賴之深，自不在話下。
RCEP看似由東協主導，中國在其背後支援，才是主要的力量。中國在國際政治與經濟上，對台灣所施加的結構性限制，並沒有因為台灣政府的兩岸交流增溫而鬆懈。台灣如何在複雜的國際關係中，善用美、中兩股勢力相互較勁的情境下，搭建兩岸友好關係，化解中國阻力為助力，尋求台灣參與區域經貿整合的契機，將嚴正考驗著政府構思經濟戰略的智慧與牽動台灣產業未來競爭生存的迫切關鍵。
本論文以「層次分析」作為研究途徑，分國際層次與國內層次論述。以新自由制度主義為援引，並輔以霸權穩定論，就美中區域經濟競合、兩岸關係與台灣產業發展、政府支援對策等方向。探討台灣在此政治與經濟嚴峻交迫夾擊下：有無機會或途徑得以加入RCEP？在積極尋求加入RCEP的過程中，又存在著哪些國際層面或兩岸關係的挑戰？台灣若能加入RCEP，哪些產業將能受惠？哪些產業正面臨嚴峻挑戰？台灣企業對此機會與挑戰的認知為何？有何因應的策略與想法？又期待政府提供哪些資源與協助？初探台灣參與RCEP的機會與挑戰，得提早知悉應對，避免台灣在國際區域整合趨勢下，致使經濟發展遭受邊緣化。

關鍵字

區域全面經濟夥伴協定 ； 跨太平洋夥伴協議

並列摘要

According to the data collected in 2013, the total trade volume achieved by the top five of the countries with RCEP membership which traded with Taiwan was up to 3,192 billion US dollars. This accounts for 55% of Taiwan’s total trade volume, 65.2% of Taiwan’s total exports and 44.5% of Taiwan’s total imports. It is self-evident that Taiwan and the RCEP member states are deeply interdependent in their economic relationship.
The RCEP, seemingly led by ASEAN, is actually significantly influenced by China. The structural constraints China has been imposing on Taiwan in international politics and economy never lessened as a result of Taiwan’s efforts in accelerating the cross-strait exchanges. It is a major issue how Taiwan, under the complicated international circumstances, can manipulate the rival forces between the US and China to build friendly relations between Taiwan and China, transform China’s resistance into assistance, and seek the opportunity to participate in the Regional Economic Integration. All these are the sternest tests our government will have to stand in planning its economic strategies and improving its future industrial competitiveness.
This thesis is conducted with the approach of the level analysis, discussing the international level and the domestic level respectively. Based on the Institutional Neoliberalism as well as hegemonic stability theory, I will discuss the regional economic competing between the US and China, the cross-strait relations, and Taiwan’s industrial development and government support measures. The aspects I am planning to research into are as follows: Does Taiwan have any chance to join the RCEP under serious political and economic threats? Are there any challenges in international and cross-strait relations while we are struggling to join the RCEP? Which industries will benefit if Taiwan can be a member of the RCEP? Which industries will face fierce challenges? What are the industry’s opinions on the opportunities and challenges? What are their responsive strategies and thoughts? What resources and assistance do they expect from the government? If we can learn about the opportunities and challenges at an early stage, we will be more capable of preventing Taiwan from being marginalized.

並列關鍵字

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ； RCEP ； The Trans-Pacific Partnership ； TPP

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