台灣電動車與非電動車供應鏈的績效實證分析

本文綜觀全球汽車零組件產業中電動車產業供應鏈之發展，2008年起漲至2012年石油價格創歷史新高的同時Tesla(特斯拉)也掀起電動車的風潮，帶動台灣電動車零組件的股價狂飆。本研究將建立一個電動車供應鏈分析模式，同時界定此模式的架構和內涵，並提供產業的發展方向與彈性調整的策略建議。全球前六大品牌由豐田拿下冠軍寶座，也是在2015年中唯一銷量突破 1,000萬輛的集團，前十大車廠於2015年的銷量達到6,352萬輛，占全球車市總銷量比例高達73%。電動車的市場已經達到55萬輛的規模，以未來的發展趨勢預期將呈現跳躍式的成長，豐田的油電混合車將於2016年總銷售量突破1000萬輛，更提出2050將終止生產汽油引擎車輛。因此，台灣電動車零組件廠商的發展優勢與重要性隨著水漲船高，在此針對台灣證券市場從2010年至2015年期間進入電動車供應鏈的公司為觀察公司，以及非電動車的對照公司為研究樣本，檢定且管理台灣電動車與非電動車供應鏈的績效實證分析。透過此架構的建立和應用，多元迴歸分析模型與兩樣本T檢定，找出各議題及應變項目的數值分析。再根據此研究文獻的回顧，企業的經營者得以詳細檢視其供應鏈運作現況，發現改善機會以提昇供應鏈績效。並提供投資人在投資電動車供應鏈相關類股的投資參考。

關鍵字

Tesla特斯拉；多元迴歸分析；電動車市場；電動車供應鏈

並列摘要

This article overviews the development of industry supply chain of the electric vehicle industry in global automotive parts. Since 2008 to 2012, the price of crude touches the highest record of history, meanwhile Tesla sets off the fashion of electric vehicles, at the same time, it takes the company’s stock of electric vehicles components spurt up in Taiwan. This study will build a supply chain analysis model of electric vehicle, and defines the structure and content of this model, and provides the flexibility for advice of adjusting by characteristics of this industry. The global top six automobile brands, Toyota win the championship by sales exceeded 10 million vehicles, that is the only group reach goal in 2015. And the top ten automakers sell 6.352 million vehicles in 2015, accounting for total global sales ups to the proportion of 73% of the automobile market. Meanwhile the electric vehicles market has reached 0.55 million scales, the trends of development will be show the growth of jumping up for the future, and Toyota's hybrid vehicles will be a breakthrough total sales of 10 million cars in 2016, and Toyota will propose to terminate production of gasoline engine of vehicles in 2050. Therefore, the advantages and importance of development for the Taiwan’s maker of electronic vehicle components has valued gradually. Here focus on the period of 2010 to 2015 when the company with in the Taiwan’s stock market enters to the electric vehicle supply chain being observed company, and non-electric vehicle company is the comparison are the research sample. Verification and management at the performance of Taiwanese electric vehicle and non-electric vehicle supply chain is empirical analyzed. By this structure to build up and apply of the multiple regression analysis model with two-sample T test for identify the various issues and the numerical analysis of strain items. Then according to a further review of this study, the enterprise operators could detail to inspect the status of their supply chain operations, and assist operators to discover the opportunities to improve for lifting up the performance of supply chain. And to provide investors with reference of investment on the electric vehicle supply chain-related stocks.