台灣核三廠核子事故民眾疏散撤離之機制設計

Residents Evacuation Mechanism Design of Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant Emergency in Taiwan

許美雪(Hsu Mei-Hsueh)

指導教授 ： 葉一隆

國立屏東科技大學/工學院/土木工程系所/博士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST202000281

摘要

2011年日本311地震造成福島核電廠射洩漏事件，促使台灣電力公司重新評估核能電廠安全，經檢討將核子事故緊急應變區域範圍由原規劃半徑5 km擴增為8 km。在核子事故發生時，除核電廠機組的搶修外，民眾的防護行動為廠外的重要工作。核三廠位於台灣南部的屏東縣恆春鎮，該地區為台灣重要觀光地點，本研究利用博弈理論評估核三廠發生核子事故時，當地居民的疏散撤離作業方案。由研究結果得知核三廠核子事故居民疏散撤離之弱點，包括居民疏散撤離時間與政府安排作業地一致性，疏散撤離專車整備數量與安排之合理性，居民不願意疏散撤離之處置方案等。其次，由博弈分析各項疏散撤離機制可知，在核三廠核子事故為緊急戒備事故階段時，政府不須派疏散撤離專車，而且居民採取之策略為不疏散撤離。

關鍵字

核子事故 ； 複合型災害 ； 博弈理論 ； 機制設計 ； 民眾疏散撤離 ； 核電廠 ； 信息不對稱

並列摘要

In 2011, the March 11th earthquake in Japan caused leakage in the Fukushima nuclear power plant. The Taiwan Power Company has now reassessed the safety of nuclear power plants in Taiwan. After the assessment, the emergency response area during a nuclear accident was expanded from the originally-planned radius of 5 km to 8 km. In the event of a nuclear accident, the public's protective actions are an important task outside the plant besides the urgent repair of the nuclear power plant units. The Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) is located in HengChuen Township, Pingtung County, in southern Taiwan. This area is an important tourist spot in Taiwan. This study used Game Theory to evaluate the evacuation operation plan of local residents when a nuclear accident occurred in the MNPP. The results showed the weaknesses of the residents' evacuation in a MNPP nuclear accident, including the consistency of the evacuation time and the operation place arranged by the government, the rationality of the number and arrangement of the evacuation vehicles, and the protective program of residents' unwilling to evacuate. Secondly, the Game Theory analysis of the various evacuation mechanisms showed that when a MNPP nuclear accident is in an emergency alert stage, the government does not need to send evacuation vehicles, and the strategy adopted by residents is not to evacuate.

並列關鍵字

Nuclear emergency ； Compound disaster ； Game theory ； Mechanism design ； Residents evacuation ； Maanshan nuclear power plant ； Information asymmetry

參考文獻

參考文獻

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