本研究主要探討我國人口老化對於地方政府財政收入的影響。醫療技術發達導致人類壽命延長,人口老化是必然的趨勢使得地方政府需採取相對應的政策來防止人口老化趨勢所帶來的衝擊。本研究採用2000-2010年台灣地區追蹤資料(panel data),分析地方政府收入面的資料,分別為各縣市政府稅捐實徵淨額、自籌財源、歲入、稅課收入,並將老化指標當成控制變數,分別為65歲以上老年人口數、0-14歲人口數、65歲以上老年人口比率、扶養比以及老化指數;與其他解釋變數,勞動力參與率、淨人口增加率、平均戶儲蓄額、預期壽命、粗出生率、粗死亡率、教育科學文化支出、社會福利支出、醫療支出佔政府支出的比率的關係。實證結果為扶養比當成老化指標為最顯著,與被解釋變數各縣市政府稅捐實徵淨額、自籌財源呈現負相關,而與歲入與稅課收入呈現正相關。
This study analyzed the relationships between actual collection of local taxes, government revenue, tax revenue, self-financing resource, proportion of aged population, old age dependency ratio, labor force participation rate, average household savings, aging index, educational scientific and cultural expenditures and expenditure for social welfare by using the panel data from 2000 to 2010 in Taiwan. The results showed that old age dependency ratio is the most fitted indicator for representing the variable aging population. Meanwhile, old age dependency ratio was a negative relationship with actual collection of local taxes and self-financing resource. It was a positive relationship with government revenue and tax revenue as well.