都市更新公私合夥財務風險評估系統動態模式之研究

A System Dynamics Model on Financial Risk Evaluation for Public-Private Partnership of Urban Renewal

張仕欣(Shih-Hsin Chang)

指導教授 ： 許國威

朝陽科技大學/設計學院/建築及都市設計研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

隨著時代的演進與經濟的發展，以及都市空間產業結構的變化和舊市區人口的外移，導致空間機能的衰敗，失去原有生產的動力。在都市發展永續發展的策略下，為解決台灣都市擴散所衍生的問題，必須持續進行都市更新來改善舊市區的環境機能。
都市更新本身具有投資金額大、回收較慢等特質，若是單方面由公部門自行開發，將會增加開發單位本身的財務負擔，產生較高的開發及營運風險，故具有投資效益自償率不高的問題，因此需要有具開發效益附屬事業的收入和公私部門合夥投資來增加開發方案的自償率。但是因為私部門與公部門所追求的效益不盡相同，如何達到平等互惠的合夥模式，將是公私部門雙方所要面臨的挑戰。
都市更新整體更新的過程繁雜且冗長，一般傳統財務風險評估的表達方式，缺乏對於整體系統過程的關聯性探討，而系統動態學重要特色為對於複雜的動態、回饋且具時間滯延的問題，提供整體、長期且較周詳的解決方法，故本研究運用系統動態學進行更周詳的都市更新公司合夥開發財務風險評估。
在研究成果的部份，由於整體都市更新公私合夥開發的週期比一般土地開發更為長久，因此在系統動態學模式的建置上，必須要將整體過程進行分段探討，主要參考過去的文獻研究，將整個過程分成開發前、開發中、開發後三階段，以財務風險評估方式評估公私合夥開發，其中財務評估指標主要為淨現值、獲利指數、自償率三項，經由敏感度分析與情境分析找出都市更新公私合夥開發存在的財務風險因子，並研擬風險的管理策略，最後在透過個案研究修正回饋都市更新開發公私合夥模式。

關鍵字

財務風險評估 ； 系統動態學 ； 公私合夥 ； 都市更新

並列摘要

Following the evolution and economic development over time, changes of urban spatial structure and population relocation of old downtown has resulted in the decline of space function and lose of original production. Under the sustainable urban development strategies, in order to solve the problems associated with urban sprawl in Taiwan, urban renewal needs to be continued to improve the function of the old downtown environment.
Urban renewal projects are high cost and slow return investments. If developed unilaterally by the public sector will increase the financial burden of the developer, and result in high development and operating risks and low investment benefit Self-Liquidating Ratio. Therefore those investments need development benefits income from subsidiary undertakings and public-private partnership to increase investment in development programs Self-Liquidating Ratio. Since benefit pursued between private sector and public sector is different, urban renewal investments face the challenge to achieve equality and mutual benefit partnership model.
The process of urban renewal is complex and lengthy. Traditional financial risk evaluation lack the whole system process relevance of investigate and system dynamics is characterized by the complex dynamics, feedback and time delay problems which provide an overall, long-term, and more comprehensive solution. Therefore, this research applies system dynamics to proceed with more comprehensive financial risk evaluation for public-private partnership of urban renewal.
The results of this research indicate that public-private partnership of urban renewal development take longer cycle time than the general land development. According to the literature, the development process of urban renewal is divided into three stages, before development, during development and after development when building system dynamics models. Applying financial risk evaluation of public-private partnership approach to development model, the main target of financial risk evaluation includes Net Present Value, Profitability Index, and Self-Liquidating Ratio. By sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, this research identifies the development of financial risk for public-private partnership of urban renewal and proposed risk management strategy. Finally, a case study is used to amendment public-private partnership of urban renewal model.

並列關鍵字

Public-Private Partnership ； System Dynamics ； Financial Risk Evaluation ； Urban Renewal

參考文獻

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