以零售商為主體的供應鏈系統,在市場需求不確定性下,存貨的不足導致供貨無法即時易造成銷售損失。特別是短生命週期的產品,一旦錯過了需求高峰期,便失去了產品在市場上販售的價值。因此,對於一個供應鏈下游的零售商而言,必須同時顧及產品的訂購、存貨以及補貨的時機。 本研究中供應鏈系統的產品訂購自國外供應商,產品運輸供貨的前置時間較長,容易造成零售商對市場需求反應不及的情況。研究中採用系統模擬建構三階層的供應鏈系統,分別為供應商、物流中心、零售商;並以零售商為主體探討需求集中於期初、期中或期末的產品生命週期型態較佳的供貨政策,其中供貨政策包含訂購政策、存貨配置與補貨政策。研究中依產品生命週期型態為已知或未知,提出適合三種生命週期型態下的供貨政策,並且對於未知的產品生命週期型態,則亦採用五種不同情境的決策準則,來評估每種決策準則下較佳之供貨政策。本研究最後亦分別產品生命週期之機率分配型態與零售商減價政策進行敏感度分析。 本研究結果顯示,對於已知的生命週期型態,存貨配置與補貨政策皆使得總利潤獲得提升;對於未知生命週期型態,模擬實驗採用不同情境的決策準則皆可獲得適合的供貨政策。根據敏感度分析的結果,需求集中於期中與三角分配的需求型態所獲得最適合的供貨政策結果並不一致,顯示需求型態的機率分配對供貨政策有顯著影響,此外,減價政策對總利潤的提升有限,也受到額外產生的需求數量所影響。
Retailers as the main role in a supply chain system lose sales because of the market demand uncertainty, insufficient inventory and delayed product shipping. For short-lifecycle products, missing demand peak period will decrease the value of product a lot in the market. Therefore, downstream''s retailer must simultaneously take into consideration the order, inventory and replenish policies. In this research, the retailer orders from the overseas supplier, therefore the product shipping lead time is long, and the retailer has to respond to the market demand quickly. This study uses systems simulation to construct a three-echelon supply chain systems, including a supplier, a distribution center and a retailer. The supply policies contains the order policy, inventory disposition and replenishment. The demand of the product is assumed to be either known or unknown with demand peak appeared in the beginning, middle, and approaching end of the lifecycle respectively. Decision criteria are applied to select best policy for managers for the unknown case. This research also perform sensitivity analysis on the distribution types of product demand as well as the discount policies of the retailer.