盈餘管理、股利政策與財務危機之關聯性

本研究以2005至2018年台灣上市櫃公司為樣本，首先依危機事件類別、不同年度及不同產業進行危機事件之分析，以瞭解那些年度及那些產業較容易發生財務危機；接著探討有發生財務危機公司與無發生財務危機公司在盈餘管理及股利政策上是否有差異，最後則探討盈餘管理、股利政策與財務危機發生之關聯性。我們發現財務危機公司相較於無財務危機公司有較高之盈餘管理，顯示公司在發生財務危機前，會利用各種盈餘管理之手段進行干預，一方面可能避免財務危機提早曝光，或是有機會可先行出脫股票。此外，發生財務危機公司較無財務危機公司，不論在現金股利率或股利殖利率都較低，顯示發生財務危機公司，可能為負的稅後淨利，且公司也沒有多餘的錢可以發放股利。研究結果發現公司只有透過處分投資損益之盈餘管理手段會對導致公司較易發生財務危機，而裁決性應計項目、處分資產損益等盈餘管理方式則與財務危機之發生機率則呈不相關。因此當公司財務上有困難時，可能會透過處分投資損益來進行挽救，或延後危機爆發之時點。此外，前一年發放愈高之現金股利率及股利殖利率愈高，則公司會發生財務危機之機率愈低，當公司績效愈好，較有能力支付股利，因此也會降低財務危機發生之機率。

關鍵字

盈餘管理；股利政策；財務危機

並列摘要

This study uses Taiwan listed and otc companies from 2005 to 2018 as a sample. First, it analyzes crisis events according to the type of crisis event, different years and different industries to understand the financial crisis that is more likely to occur in those years and industries; then we discusse the differences in earnings management and dividend policy between the company with financial crisis and the company without financial crisis. Finally, we discuss whether the financial crisis is affected by the earnings management and dividend policy. We found that financial crisis companies have higher earnings management than non-financial crisis companies. This shows that companies will use various methods of earnings management to intervene before a financial crisis. The companies have the opportunity to get out of stock. In addition, companies with financial crisis are less likely than companies without financial crisis, regardless of whether the cash dividend rate or dividend yield are lower, indicating that a financial crisis company may have a negative net profit after tax, and the company has no extra money to pay dividends. The results of the study found that the company's earnings management methods that only “dispose of investment profits and losses” would cause the company to be more prone to financial crises, while the earnings management methods such as “discretionary accruals” and “disposal of asset profits and losses” are not related to the probability of financial crises. Therefore, when the company has financial difficulties, it may be rescued by disposing of investment profits or losses, or delaying the timing of the crisis. In addition, the higher the cash dividend rate and the higher dividend yield in the previous year, the lower the probability of the company's financial crisis. When the company's performance is better, it is more able to pay dividends, so it will also reduce the occurrence of financial crisis.