臺海危機控制與“決戰境外”的戰略分析

The Strategic Analysis on the Control of Taiwan Strait Crisis and Battle Outside of Territory

王崑義(Kung-Yi Wang)

《遠景季刊》 2卷4期 (2001/10) Pp. 161-192

https://doi.org/10.7063/PR.200110.0161

摘要

危機的升高與控制被當成一種戰略，已是危機處理中一項重要的戰略原則。本文是以危機處理理論，分析過去臺海危機的行為模式，並據此評估陳水扁總統所提出的「決戰境外」戰略的可行性。研究結果發現，在兩岸政治情勢充滿不確定性的情況下，以「決戰境外」的戰略做為危機門檻，把臺灣的戰略意志明確傳達給彼岸，將有效遏止中共對臺採取軍事冒進動作。只是這樣的戰略施為，可能會造成兩岸增加軍備競賽的後果。

關鍵字

臺海危機 ； 危機處理 ； 升高控制 ； 決戰境外 ； 縱深打擊

並列摘要

Controlling escalation as a strategy has now become a key principle of crisis management. This paper is going to analyze the behavior pattern of Taiwan Strait crisis and assess the feasibility of a decisive battle outside the territory, proposed by President Chen Shui-bian, from theoretical perspective of crisis management. We argue, with the political uncertainty between Taiwan Strait, adopting the strategy of outside the territory, passing the message clearly at the same time, it should effectively prevent Chinese military provocation from happening. As a result, military competition will be even more intensive.

並列關鍵字

taiwan Strait crisis ； crisis management ； Battle outside of territory ； Strategy analysis

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