促成中日韓ＦＴＡ談判的戰略分析與離島主權爭議的影響

The Analysis of Strategy Leading to the China-Japan-Korea FTA Negotiations and Influences of the Islands Sovereignty Dispute

劉坤鱧(Kun-Li Liu)

《中華行政學報》 10期 (2012/06) Pp. 201-219

https://doi.org/10.6712/JCPA.201206_(10).0009

摘要

自1999年在馬尼拉舉行的東協加三會議中，中日韓領導人同意就三國的經濟合作進行研究以來，歷經十餘年，終於在2012年5月中旬完成「投資貿易協定」簽署作業，並決議在年內開啟自由貿易區談判，是三國經貿合作的一大躍進。中日韓間存在著難解的地緣政治、民族情愁等糾葛，三國的經貿合作關係經常因政治與經濟利益需求難以兼顧而停停走走，如今終於走到自貿區談判關口，究竟是什麼原因，促成三國領導人決定在2012年開啟自由貿易區的談判？本文分別從國際局勢的變化、國家發展的戰略考量以及簽署FTA對中日韓三國的意義等三個層面進行分析。而在自貿區談判前夕，卻爆發了竹島與釣魚台領土爭議，三國的經貿合作關係恐將受阻。持續僵持的領土爭議，迫使中共表態可能將影響年內啟動自貿區談判的進程，而當爭議僵持愈久，東北亞地區偶發性衝突的可能性就將升高，進而危及全球經濟發展與地區性安定。在此全球經濟走勢疲軟，國家出口持續衰退之際，離島主權爭議恐將使原本可以三贏的局面變成三輸收場，為避免區域衝突進一步危及全球經濟前景，本文認為馬英九總統提出的「東海和平倡議」五項訴求，可做為各造思考的方向，北海油氣開發的爭端解決模式，也可成為解決離島爭議的借鑑。

關鍵字

自由貿易區 ； 區域貿易協定 ； 全球化 ； 歐美經濟衰退 ； 貿易保護主義

並列摘要

It is a great progress that China, Japan and South Korea had made a decision to open talks on FTA in 2012,after signing the ”investment and trade agreements” in mid-May 2012. Since 1999, the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea agreed to conduct a study on economic cooperation in ASEAN plus three meeting held in Manila, it takes more than ten years to get here.Because of serial political and economic interests difficult to reconcile, economic and trade cooperation between the three countries encountered obstacles frequently and delay their free trade process. In this article, I will analyze the reasons which make the three countries firm their mind to accelerate the negotiations on FTA from three dimensions, including changes in the international situation, the considerations of national development, and the significances of China-Japan-Korea FTA in Asia.However, on the eve of negotiations, Takeshima and Diaoyutai territorial disputes broke out and it might introduce variables on China-Japan-Korea FTA process. Sure enough, such a situation had forced China to make a statement that FTA negotiations process in this year may be affected.When the disputes stalemate the longer, the possibility of sporadic conflict in Northeast Asia will rise and thus endanger global economic development and regional stability. To avoid regional conflicts further jeopardize the prospects of the global economy, this article believe that President Ma Ying-jeou's ”East Sea peace initiative” five demands can be used as the direction of thought, meanwhile, North Sea oil and gas development mode of dispute settlement, can also be an Islands dispute resolution experience.

並列關鍵字

Free Trade ； Regional Trade Agreements ； Globalization ； Economic Recession in Europe and America ； Trade Protectionism

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