南投縣政治版圖之研究

The Research of Political Landscape for Nantou County

黃國敏(Edward K. Hwang)

《中華行政學報》 15期 (2014/12) Pp. 51-77

https://doi.org/10.6712/JCPA.201412_(15).0003

摘要

根據民國90年以來十次全縣性大選，包括立法委員選舉、縣長選舉與總統選舉結果各候選人所屬政黨得票數與得票率做點估計，泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖11%。若進一步分成兩區來做點估計，泛藍第一（烏溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13%。泛藍第二（濁水溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8%。若以區間估計來分析，泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖11%，泛藍第一（烏溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13%，泛藍第二（濁水溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8%。所以無論以點估計或是區間估計，其結果相當類似：泛藍第一（烏溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠13%，泛藍第二（濁水溪）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠8%，泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖約11%。如果依藍綠兩軍在各鄉鎮的得票數與得票率區間估計再予加總和平均發現泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖12.5%。以各鄉鎮而言，泛綠在名間鄉（53.55%）最強，平均得票率超過五成，其次是魚池鄉（48.93%）、竹山鎮（48.82%）和中寮鄉（47.33%），平均得票率超過四成五，最弱的是信義和仁愛兩個山地鄉，平均得票率都低於四成。相反地，泛藍在信義和仁愛兩個山地鄉最強，平均得票率都超過六成，次強的是國姓鄉（56.99%）、南投市（56.62%）、和集集鎮（56.04%），最弱的是名間鄉（44.71%）、次弱的是魚池鄉（49.51%）和竹山鎮（49.12%），得票率都低於五成。賴進貴、葉高華與張智昌的研究指出南投縣的Moran''''s I為0.4758，標準化的Z（I）為13.34，顯示南投縣具有強烈的地域差異，政治支持對象明顯顯著偏綠，惟本文分析結果卻顯示南投縣應屬泛藍稍強地區。2014年11月29日投票結果民進黨提名的李文忠得到143719票，得票率49.03%，國民黨提名的林明溱得到149361票，得票率50.96%，可見相較於其他縣市，藍綠政治版圖在南投縣已由泛藍向泛綠傾斜約5%，藍綠兩軍似乎已經勢均力敵了。

關鍵字

南投縣 ； 選舉 ； 政治版圖

並列摘要

With the votes for the candidates belonging to which party to do the point estimation using the electoral data since 2001, including legislative, magistrate, and presidential elections, the average number of votes is about 116,309 and the average percent is approximately 44.597% for the pan-green parties; and the average number of votes is about 143,745 and the average percent is approximately 55.283% for the pan-blue parties. Therefore, the pan-blue political landscape is 10.686% greater than the pan-green in Nantou County. When divided into two areas to do the point estimations that the pan-blue political landscape is 13.348% greater than the pan-green in the first constituency; and the pan-blue political landscape is 8.427% greater than the pan-green in the second constituency. With the votes for the candidates belonging to which party to do the interval estimation, the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 12.481% and 13.15% in Nantou County. When divided into two areas to do the interval estimations, the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 13.34% and 13.35% in the first constituency; the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 8.37% and 8.48% in the second constituency. The Moran's I is 0. 4758 and the Standardized Z (I) is 13.34, and they display there is a strong regional differences, and the political support is obviously tending to the dark green party according to the Lai Jingui, et al. But this paper shows that Nantou County is a pan-blue super region. However, the results of 2014 election shows that the pan-blue total vote number is 149,361 and the pan-blue vote percent is 50.96%; the pan-green total vote number is 143,719 and the pan-green vote percent is 49.03%; compared with other cities and counties, the political landscape in Nantou County had shifted 5% from the pan-blue to pan-green parties. They match each other in strength now.

並列關鍵字

Nantou County ； Election ； Political Landscape

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