新竹市政治版圖之研究

新竹市是個文化與科技兼具的年輕城市，由於園區的座落，外移人口逐漸增加，中產階級多，平均年齡居全臺最低，加上原本的閩南及客家居民，亦有外省族群與近年來比例增多的新移民，豐富了新竹多元人文的風貌，多數的理性中間選民更是每每影響選舉勝負的重要關鍵。現今選民對於兩黨的惡鬥似乎讓藍綠陣營得票率遲遲無法有明顯的成長，柯文哲效應促使第三勢力在近年選舉逐漸得到民眾的認可，因此許多無黨與小黨參與選舉造成的影響力不容小覷。新竹市政治版圖長年來被外界認為是國民黨優勢區，國民黨也在桃竹竹苗地區長期擁有得票率持續領先的整體優勢，因而加上北北基版圖讓整個北部地區選舉地理一直讓我們有著藍大於綠的印象。新竹市除了原有外省族群占全市人口約17.9%，客家族群占約23.1%，也由於近年來擁有高科技產業的科學園區坐落，本市的外移人口隨之增長，加上生育率的提高使市民平均年齡逐年降低，新竹市特有的人口結構對傳統政治生態產生了影響；而新竹市近年的政治版圖大幅震盪，民進黨在新竹市2014至2016共三次選舉獲得多數選票，突破傳統藍大於綠的板塊印象，使得國民黨的深藍票倉已不復見。就現階段來看國民黨與民進黨在新竹市已然勢均力敵，藍大於綠的基本盤已不復見，兩黨只要取得中間選民的支持，勝選機率就會增高。因此，各政黨在擬定政見或施政方針上如何符合市民需求是極為重要的，尤其單一席次選舉時政黨也成為選民在投票時的重要考量，政黨若在執政時成果較佳或是在野時監督有成，都是爭取地方選舉勝選的重要因素。

關鍵字

政治版圖；新竹市；中國國民黨；民主進步黨；中間選民

並列摘要

The political landscape for Hsinchu city has been regarded as the KMT advantage area for many years and the KMT had enjoyed the overall victory in the Hsinchu-Miaoli area. Moreover, the north Taiwan area always impresses more ＂blue＂ than ＂green＂ in the electoral geography. In terms of population structure for Hsinchu city, the mainlander ethnic group accounts for about 17.9% and Hakka ethnic group accounts for about 23.1%. While with the development of economy and science technology park area, the immigrate increases and the average age decreases year by year. This special population structure has important impact on the traditional political ecology as well as the political landscape for Hsinchu city recently. Therefore the DPP wins in the past 3 elections and breaks the traditional impression that the ＂blue＂ is stronger than the ＂green＂ in Hsinchu city. This study analyzes the 2005-2016 electoral data of mayors, legislators and president by observing the changing rates for the KMT and the DPP in regions. It finds that the sharp decline of the KMT's basic supporters and the DPP's basic supporters do not increase significantly as well. Since Cai Renjian(蔡仁堅), Qiu Xianzhi(邱顯智), James Song(宋楚瑜) etc. participated elections after 2014, more voters gradually support the nonpartisan candidates. Therefore KMT and DPP must work harder to win back their supporters.