納入再生能源特性之電力供給規劃研究—風力發電範例分析

Electricity Supply Planning Incorporating Renewable Energy Characteristics-A Case Study of Wind Power

黃韻勳(Yun-Hsun Huang)

《先進工程學刊》 8卷2期 (2013/04) Pp. 71-77

摘要

再生能源除具有降低溫室氣體及空氣污染物排放等潔淨能源之特色外，尚具有帶動產業發展及降低對進口能源依賴等優點，故發展再生能源為政府現階段之重要能源政策。但如何將再生能源特性納入傳統電力供給規劃模式中，以務實評估再生能源配比及輔助再生能源發展之策略規劃，為一重要之課題。本研究係以台灣電力部門為範例，建構納入再生能源特性之電力供給規劃模式。模式中應用「投資組合」、「技術內生化」與「再生能源容量貢獻」等理論，以考量再生能源趨避化石燃料價格波動、技術進步顯著及間歇性產出之特性，同時將再生能源區分為六類發電技術，以分別考量其技術特性。模式中設定「風險調整後的發電成本現值」最小化為目標，同時結合傳統電力模式之相關限制，以建構理論模式。最後利用此模式針對風力發電進行情境模擬分析，評估在不同情境下對發電技術組合、發電成本之影響，供電力部門未來規劃之參考。

關鍵字

再生能源 ； 電力供給規劃模式 ； 投資組合 ； 技術內生化 ； 容量貢獻 ； 風力發電

並列摘要

Renewable energy comes from natural sustainable resources and features both lowering air pollution and reducing green-house gas emissions. Furthermore, energy diversification decreases dependency on imported fuels; so, renewable energy development plays an important role in Taiwan government energy policy. Conventionally, electricity supply planning is based on least-cost principles, in which systems perform in environments of relative cost certainty, relatively slow technological progress, high availability of homogeneous electricity generating technologies and stable energy prices. Using the traditional planning model would result in a preference for fossil fuel techniques, thereby overlooking the benefits of renewable energy. Hence, it is therefore essential to integrate the features of renewable energy into traditional analytical frameworks in electricity supply planning. In this study, an electricity supply planning model that incorporates the characteristics of renewable energy is constructed. By using Taiwan's electricity sector as a case study, portfolio theory, learning curve theory, and the capacity credit are applied to reflect the characteristics of renewable energy, including hedge against fluctuation in fossil fuel prices, significant technological progress, and intermittent generation. The proposed model is designed to minimize the present value of total generation costs after risk adjustment, which considers both the present value of total generation costs and the risk. The model also factors constraints into traditional electricity supply planning models. Simulation scenarios on wind power are also examined to evaluate the impact on various combinations of power generation technologies and total generating cost. Finally, suggestions are provided according to the simulation results.

並列關鍵字

renewable energy ； electricity supply planning model ； portfolio theory ； learning curve theory ； capacity credit ； wind power