推動風力再生能源政策之層級分析

Hierarchical Analysis of Implementation of Wind Renewable Energy Policy

李宜庭(I-Ting Li)

指導教授 ： 張迪惠 ； 白子易

朝陽科技大學/理工學院/環境工程與管理系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

應用層級分析法 (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) 理論，進行學者、政府機關、環保團體及一般民眾等對推動風力再生能源政策準則之重要性評估，經過二段階問卷及整理歸納分析後，找出最具共同性的觀點，而得到本研究的結果，希望這份研究結果可以作為政府在推動風力再生能源政策時之參考依據。透過與風力再生能源政策相關的文獻探討後，歸納、整理出相關的評估要素，並採用李克特 (Likert) 五分量表的題項設計調查問卷，經由統計及平均數的分析，採用平均數最高的16點題項為要素準則，完成「推動風力再生能源政策之層級架構」，並編製AHP相對權重調查問卷。
回收專家們的問卷後，透過一致性檢定篩檢出有效的問卷，以控制結果的可信度，藉由層級分析法之成對比較過程，獲得準則間的相對重要性權重值，建立權重體系，提供有效訊息給未來相關單位參考。本研究分析之結果如下：
一、在評估要素層，整體專家認為最重要的要素依序為：「經濟誘因」、「技術研發」、「政策層面」、「教育宣導」。
二、在「經濟誘因」下要素準則層，整體專家認為最重要的準則依序為：「政府優惠收購風力發電的電力」、「提供風力發電產業租稅減免或優惠」、「研究風機之創新應用服務模式，創造商機」、「拓展國際市場」。
三、在「技術研發」下要素準則層，整體專家認為最重要的準則依序為：「優先推動技術成熟及具經濟效益項目」、「鼓勵研發離岸風力發電技術」、「改善風力發電電力儲存技術」、「給予風力發電產品專利保護」。
四、在「政策層面」下要素準則層，整體專家認為最重要的準則依序為：「政府積極發展綠色能源產業」、「追求低碳與低污染能源供給與消費方式」、「提高風力發電佔總供給電量比例」、「降低對化石能源與進口能源的依存度」。
五、在「教育宣導」下要素準則層，整體專家認為最重要的準則依序為：「提供完整風力發電教育資訊與資源」、「參酌地方特性，訂定能源教育行動方案」、「推動風力發電教育國際交流及合作」、「辦理風力發電教育宣導及活動」。
六、要素準則整體權重前5項準則依序為「政府優惠收購風力發電的電力」、「提供風力發電產業租稅減免或優惠」、「政府積極發展綠色能源產業」、「優先推動技術成熟及具經濟效益項目」及「研發離岸風力發電技術」。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 經濟誘因 ； 風力發電 ； 再生能源政策

並列摘要

This study applied Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to review the importance of criteria for the promotion of wind energy policies based on the feedback from scholars, government agencies, environmental groups and the general public. Through a two-stage questionnaire survey and analysis, this study aimed to find the most important and share perspectives. The findings could provide a reference to the government in the promotion of wind energy policies. A list of relevant assessment factors were established on the basis of literature reviews. A questionnaire was designed with Likert 5-point scale, and the data were analyzed. Finally, this study established a total of 16 key issues with the highest means as the key criteria, and formulated the hierarchy of the wind energy policies accordingly. It also produced a questionnaire based on the relative weights derived with AHP.
After retrieving expert questionnaires, this study conducted consistency test to screen the valid questionnaires in order to control the reliability of the results. Pairwise comparison of hierarchical analysis was conducted to obtain the relative weights among the criteria, for constructing the weight system and providing effective information for related units. The analytical findings of this study are shown below:
1. At the level of evaluation, the overall priority sequence suggested by experts is: “economic incentives”, “technical research and development”, “policies aspect” and “educational promotion”.
2. At the level of “economic incentives”, the overall priority sequence suggested by experts is: “the government’s favorable purchase of wind power”, “tax breaks or preferences for wind power industry”, “to study the innovative service model of wind turbines and create business opportunities” and “expansion of international market”.
3. At the level of “technical research and development”, the overall priority sequence suggested by experts is: “prior implementation of items with mature techniques and economic benefits”, “R&D of off-shore wind power technique”, “improvement of wind power saving technique”, “patents for wind power products”.
4. At the level of “policies aspect ”, the overall priority sequence suggested by experts is: “the government’s active development of green energy industry”, “low-carbon and low-pollution energy supply and consumption”, “increase of the wind power percentage in total power supply” and “reduction of the dependency on fossil energy and imported energy”.
5. At the level of “educational promotion”, the overall priority sequence suggested by experts is: “to provide complete wind power education information and resources”, “to construct energy education plans according to local characteristics”, “implementation of international exchange and cooperation of wind power education”, “wind power educational promotion and activities”.
6. The criteria with the top five weights are “the government’s favorable purchase of wind power”, “tax breaks or preferences for wind power industry”, “the government’s active development of green energy industry”, “prior implementation of items with mature techniques and economic benefits” and “R&D of off-shore wind power technique”.

並列關鍵字

wind power ； renewable energy policy ； economic incentives ； Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

參考文獻

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