創新投資中國績效評估的策略－層級分析、模糊理論與理想近似度偏好排序法分析

Appraisal Performance of FDI Strategy in China-AHP, Fuzzy Theory and TOPSIS Methods

趙李英記(Ying-Jih Chao Lee)

《先進工程學刊》 9卷1期 (2014/01) Pp. 1-8

摘要

以層級分析、模糊理論與理想近似度偏好排序法分析創新投資中國績效評估的策略，綜合考慮經濟、社會、技術和環境等多種因素，使用客觀資料庫加以實證研究，精確地評估各種創新投資中國策略，績效評估分配方案的合理性，實際地反映創新投資的整體資訊績效評估。因此，本文以五年（2006年到2010年）選出四種重要因素包括環境影響、經濟狀況、社會影響，和技術水平，輔以台商對中國投資，對中國出口，以及中國經濟成長率資料做為主觀權重，使用層級分析法決定各評估指標的加權值；利用模糊理論衡量出各指標的績效值；最後透過理想解近似度偏好排序法求得排名。探討整體性創新投資績效的策略，求出台商對大陸投資，對大陸出口，以及中國經濟成長率，判別重要性的排序，分別為對大陸出口＞中國經濟成長率＞台商對大陸投資。研究結果可作為相關業者做決策的依據與參考。本研究所建立層級架構及準則，也可以有條理掌握實際創新投資的關鍵因素，並瞭解各項評估因素相對重要程度，使決策者在進行規劃時能從全方位投資管理角度來思考問題，導引台商正確投資的抉擇以降低風險。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 投資績效 ； 理想近似度偏好排序法

並列摘要

With Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy and TOPSIS appraisal performance to investment strategy, as well as considering economic, social, technology and environment factors, objective database is used to accurately assess the investment in China to evaluate reasonable performance of its allocation scheme in this empirical study. Therefore, the overall investment performance was assessed and reflected by selecting four important factors including environment factors, economic conditions, social factors, and technology level from 2006 to 2010 to support the investment, export to China, and China's economic growth rate when subjective data was used to determine the weighting of each indicator by AHP. Furthermore, the performance of each indicator was measured and obtained with the ranking through TOPSIS by Fuzzy theory. By Exploring the whole picture of innovation to investment performance and its strategy, investment, export to China, and its economic growth rate is thus obtained as shown: The ranking of importance: exports to China is greater than China's economic growth rate, and China's economic growth rate is greater than investment in China. In this way, findings based on hierarchical framework, guidelines, and the key factors are controlled by the actual investment condition in this study to better understand the importance of various factors for decision makers to optimize their investment plan.

並列關鍵字

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ； Investment Performance ； Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)