中國趨勢之分析：兩岸關係之研究

兩岸關係為當代顯學，台灣海峽乃全球最有可能發生戰爭的地區之一，影響著未來整個中國的走向及台灣二千三百萬人的命運，其統、獨、和、戰牽動整個東亞局勢的穩定，美中（共）戰略的角力，而為全球華人、各國政治領袖與戰略學者注目的焦點。中國「大一統」的神聖理念與「台灣民族主義」的對決，將是全中國人的不幸，海峽兩岸如爆發戰爭，台灣將招致毀滅性的後果，「大事小以仁」，「小事大以智」，中共應尊重台灣人民當家作主的意願，不要一廂情願的要以「一國兩制」吞併台灣，台灣應理解中國傳統根深柢固的「大一統」神聖理念，不要任意挑釁中共，踩中共的紅線，自取滅亡，雙方擱置主權爭議，和平共存，加強經貿、文化、學術的交流，去異存同，統獨問題留待時間去解決。「維持現狀」乃目前兩岸關係最佳的選擇，「台灣不獨，中共不武」，「台獨」不可能，「統一」時機未成熟，雙方各守本分，和平共存，全力發展經濟，共創大中華經濟共榮圈。中國歷史上雖有分裂的時期，但最終均歸於統一，從中國歷史經驗省察，兩岸終將統一，再開創出第三週期的漢唐盛世。

關鍵字

中國趨勢；兩岸關係；大一統；台灣民族主義；維持現狀；和平共存；漢唐盛世

並列摘要

Studies of the across-strait relationship are gaining increasing attention because Taiwan Strait is regarded as an area where war is likely to take place. The relationship has a great impact on the people of both Taiwan and China. The potential relationships including independence, alliance or unification between Taiwan and China have been the focus of the political leaders of the Eastern Asia, and of the United States as well. The concepts of Chinese ”great unifications” and Taiwanese ”Taiwan Nationalism” conflict between both may result in potential wars. The author argues that China should not reinforce ”one state, two systems” but respect Taiwanese people's choice, while Taiwan should not provoke China by stepping its bottom line and seek self-destruction. The best solution is to ”Maintain the Status Quo”-no independence for Taiwan, no violence from China. Independence for Taiwan is not likely but unification is still premature. However, both sides can strengthen economic and academic exchange and create the ”Great Chinese Economic Circle”. The author predicts the unification between the two sides will eventually come and there will be the third prosperous period after those of Han and Tang Dynasty.

並列關鍵字

Chinese Trends ； Across-Strait Relationship ； Great Unification ； Taiwan Nationalism ； Maintain the Status Quo ； Peaceful Co-Existence ； Prosperous Period of Han and Tang Dynasty