The United States, China and Japan: A Not Too Romantic Triangular Relationship and Taiwan's Search for Asymmetric Peace

Bih-Jaw Lin

《Prospect Journal》 9期 (2013/06) Pp. 1-22

並列摘要

This paper tries to examine the trends of future Washington- Tokyo-Beijing relations and see how Taiwan can cope with the new situation. Overall, the author argues that the newly formed triangular relationship looks fragile, but there is some continuity while mutual interests serve as the base for future stability. The concept of strategic eclecticism is used to explain the need for the three major powers in East Asia to maintain their cooperation, engagement and interaction, while, at the same time, continuing to compete, bargain and subdue their rivals in the international community or in the region. The concept of containment is very familiar and deep in our memory, but it is not the correct term to predict or explain U.S. policy in this part of the world. Even the balance of power needs much reexamination to explain U.S. policy in face of a rising China in the information age when Washington and Tokyo consider likely measures to deal with the effects of anti-access and area-denial. Asia and the Pacific may become the land of the rising sun and the ocean of peace, if the three major powers genuinely pursue a policy of strategic eclecticism. Taiwan, of course, will benefit from this trend, but it needs to take care of its relations with the three core states in East Asia. TIFA and TPP are the priority policy areas with the U.S. Fishing rights need to be negotiated with Japan. Trust and confidence await further consolidation internally and across the strait. If Taiwan can succeed in maintaining stability and prosperity for the foreseeable future, it will be an asymmetric peace, not war, for the first time in the history of China and international relations.

並列關鍵字

Rebalancing ； Pivot ； Containment ； Strategic Eclecticism ； Asymmetric Peace