關係人交易對財務危機預測模式影響之探討

Research on the Impact of Related Party Transaction on Financial Distress Forecast

邱瓊玲(Chiung-Lin Chiu)

《育達科大學報》 26期 (2011/03) Pp. 31-48

https://doi.org/10.7074/YDAJB.201103.0031

摘要

由於全球金融風暴的影響，更多的公司將會面臨財務危機。當公司有財務危機狀況時，高階管理者可能透過關係人交易的行為來窗飾。本研究從臺灣經濟新報資料庫選取2006至2008年在台灣上市及上櫃公司之資料，包括26家財務危機與52家正常公司樣本，總計78家為本研究樣本數。本研究採用羅吉斯迴歸，除採用財務比率變數來預測財務危機的準確率外，加入了關係人交易變數指標。研究結果顯示，加入了關係人交易變數後模型準確率提升了6.4%。

關鍵字

財務危機 ； 關係人交易 ； 羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

In the light of the tremendous impact of global financial crisis, an increasing number of companies will or have already faced financial challenges and hurdles at various levels. It is very likely that senior executives at these companies might conduct the related party transaction behavior under such circumstances. The samples of this research are collected from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database for companies listed on TSEC (Taiwan Stock Exchange) or GTSM (Gre Tai Securities Market), dated from 2006 to 2008. The samples have 78 companies including 26 companies with severe financial crisis and 52 companies with healthy financial outlook. This research employs a logistic regression prediction model. In addition to using a traditional financial ratio as a variable to predict the accuracy of such financial crisis, this model also adds related party measures as independent variables. The research result concludes that the accuracy of the model increases by 6.4% after incorporating related party transaction measure into the model.

並列關鍵字

Financial Distress ； Related Party Transaction ； Logistic Regression

參考文獻

王保進(2004)：多變量分析：套裝程式與資料分析。臺北市：高等教育出版社。

王濟川和郭志剛（2004）：Logistic 迴歸模型:方法及應用。臺北市：五南圖書。

朱延智（2005）：財務危機管理。臺北市：五南圖書。

江向才和林美智(2010)，公司內外部監督機制與財務危機之關聯性，管理與資訊學報，15，57-89。

李振祥（2005）：財務分析觀點下危機預警模型之建構。基隆市：國立海洋大學航運管理學系碩士論文(未出版)。