環境海洋與天然災害產業人力之預測模型研究

永續發展已成為許多國家調和經濟發展、環境保護與社會公平正義之原則，行政院為回應此一國際趨勢成立國家永續發展委員會，作為我國推動永續發展的政策協調與評估機關。本研究介紹環境海洋與天然災害在我國發展的產業現況，利用「國科會科技計畫資料庫」86-97年的實際數據進行整理與分析，並採用二重指數平滑法建立人力預測模型，藉此預測未來幾年環境海洋與天然災害產業的人力資源發展趨勢。研究結果顯示98年度至102年度的環境海洋與天然災害產業預測人數為一平穩上升現象，科技計畫人力供需同步反映，人力供給與需求趨勢大致相同。研究預測模型中98至102年的每年人力供給成長率僅為4.09%，申請人數、通過件數及計畫核定金額成長率偏低。雖然跨領域研究者大量流入環境海洋與天然災害產業領域，但該領域的人才流出比例為12.9%，跨他領域研究比例也達12.80%，面對未來明顯重要且關鍵的的產業研究需求，人力供給仍有政策鼓勵的必要。

關鍵字

環境海洋；天然災害；指數平滑法

並列摘要

Sustainable Development has become key principles in many countries to reconcile economic development, environmental protection and the social equity and justice. The Executive Yuan response this international trend to establish the National Council for Sustainable Development in charge our sustainable development policies and evaluation.Based on the data of NSC's Technology Program Database from year 1997 to 2008, we built a personnel forecasting model by Exponential Smoothing Methods to forecast the manpower trend in the field of Environment, Ocean and Natural Disaster Industry in the upcoming years. The study indicates the manpower dedicated to this field has a smooth increase from 2009 to 2013. In the forecast model 2009 to 2013 year average manpower supplies growth rate is only 4.09%, the growth rate in manpower, number of plans and plan budget amounts is far lower than needs.Although the cross domain researcher flows in the Environment, Ocean and Natural Disaster Industry, but the domain researcher's flows out rate is 12.90%, and the rate which flows to other field for cross domain research is highly to 12.80%. Facing this future obvious important and key research demand, the manpower supplies still had the necessity which have policy encourages.