對外貿易和中國崛起對台灣實質薪資型菲利普曲線之影響分析

An Effect of Foreign Trade and China Rising on Taiwan Wage-Phillips Curve

鄭貴元(Kuei-yuan Cheng) ； 李堯賢(Yao-Hsien Lee) ； 李玫郁(Mei-Yu Lee)

《育達科大學報》 45期 (2017/12) Pp. 1-14

摘要

本文探究台灣實質薪資型菲利普曲線可否顯示台灣經濟與勞動市場會受到出口導向因素與貨幣數量政策的影響效果。本文以逐步線性迴歸模型與曲線線性化模型估計實質薪資型菲利普曲線，由於後者可估計至17次方的泰勒展開式而具有更多的可解釋力，因此實證支持台灣勞動力市場之實質薪資成長率會受到出口導向因素和貨幣數量政策的顯著影響。與我們熟悉的傳統菲利普曲線和線性迴歸模型的結果相反，曲線化迴歸模型的估計迴歸曲線是更為準確，且有較高的解釋力和較少的MSE，也顯示台灣實質薪資，甚至名目薪資成長率下降的事實。

關鍵字

實質薪資型菲利普曲線 ； 曲線線性化模型 ； 出口訂單 ； 中國經濟

並列摘要

Taiwan faces the average monthly real wages fall to the 1998 level, but the previous papers only express the fact without discussing the reasons. Most of the papers try to explain the change of wages according to the economic theories such as New Keynesian theory from the average view which is traditional linear regressive model, and cannot accurately estimate and catch the pattern of real wages. This paper investigates a real wage dynamic Phillips curve where adds the important factors such as international trade in terms of export orders and China economy rising. In the estimated results between linear and curve-linear regressive models, there indeed exists a higher explainable power and less MSE of curve-linear model. Moreover, the growth rates of Taiwan real wages are intervened by government' policy and affected by the international recession.

並列關鍵字

The real wage-Phillips curve ； Curve-linear model ； Export orders ； China economy

參考文獻

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