從國防競爭力探討國防預算佔GDP比例之合理性－跨國實證研究

The National Defense Competitiveness and Percentage of Annual Defense Budget in GDP-A Cross Country Analysis

陳美惠(Mei-Hui Chen) ； 吳旻遵(Min-Tsun Wu)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十八屆 (2010/06) Pp. 270-289

摘要

一國的國防競爭力與該國的經濟發展、國家安全與戰略目標密不可分，所以一國的國家競爭力應有具競爭力之國防實力為後盾。本研究為一跨國實證研究，研究期間為2005至2008年，所需軍事資料取自於軍力平衡，軍力排名資料則來自GFP網站及詹氏防衛週刊，運用複迴歸模型及因素分析方法取得影響軍力排名因素之相對權重可得估計國防競爭力的客觀分數，再分別針對樣本內及樣本外國防競爭力排名進行模型適合性與效度評估。最後，探討在不同情境下國防競爭力與國防預算佔GDP比例間之關聯性。研究結果發現，複迴歸模型之適合性及模型效度優於因素分析法，且其評估之排名與GFP及詹氏防衛週刊排名呈現中高度顯著正相關，而在不同情境下各國國防預算佔GDP比例與國防競爭力排名未達統計顯著，唯僅考慮不同情境與國防預算佔GDP比例交互作用下，提高國防預算佔GDP比例，國防競爭力將相對提升。

關鍵字

國防競爭力 ； 軍力排名 ； 模型適合性 ； 效度

並列摘要

The national defense competitiveness is related to country's economic development, national security and strategic goals in the country, so the national competitiveness of the country should have the strong national defense competitiveness. This study is a cross country analysis during 2005 to 2008. The required military information is from the military balance, the military ranking data are from GFP website and Jane's Defence Weekly. Estimating the weight of affecting the national military ranking by using multiple regression model and factor analysis to obtain score measured in national defense competitiveness. Evaluated the model fit and validity by inside and outside samples. Finally, researched the relevance between the national defense competitiveness and the percentage of national defense budget in GDP in the different scenarios. The research showed multiple regression model's fit and validity are better than factor analysis. The estimated military rankings are highly positive correlation with GFP and Jane's Defence Weekly. It is found that the percentage of national defense budget in GDP does not reach statistically significant with national defense competitiveness in different scenarios. In considering the interaction between the different scenarios and the percentage of national defense budget in GDP. Increasing the percentage of national defense budget in GDP, national defense competitiveness will rise.

並列關鍵字

national defense competitiveness ； military ranking ； model fitting ； validity