植基於模糊系統動態方法分析預算分配對武器裝備支援效益

Based on Fuzzy System Dynamics Method to Analyze Budget Allocation about Support Effectiveness on Weapon Equipments

洪國禎(Kuo C. Hung) ； 司徒瑋(W. Ssu Tu)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十八屆 (2010/06) Pp. 394-408

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201006.0394

摘要

國軍零附件補給正常化與及時修護是維持武器裝備效能之關鍵因素，一旦供補不及將肇生裝備妥善率下降，影響國軍戰備任務之遂行。囿於國防預算資源有限，如何確保國防戰力不墜與資源運用之間取得平衡，是為當前重要的議題。因此，本研究目的在使決策者確切掌握國防預算分配後，零附件供應量對裝備可靠度（妥善率）影響之程度，以供國軍高層未來訂定部頒妥善率之參考。本研究應用系統動態學的觀念建構一個國軍零附件供應鏈模型，且進一步運用模糊運算來處理需求申請、撥發時間及預算分配等不確定性的因子，用以改善傳統系統動態學必須使用明確數值之缺點，使得整體模式更具完善。經研究結果顯示，當採用需求為導向的預算分配模式時，裝備均可維持在部頒標準(85%)之上；若以供給為導向時，則裝備在目標年度的第349天後將低於部頒標準，如須維持現行部頒標準，則預算額度必須提高3.64%，否則需要調整部頒標準或採取其他保修作為，方能維繫我國防戰力。此訊息將可提供國軍高層對於預算分配與妥善率之間關係強度的說明，據以作為未來後勤整備之參考。

關鍵字

系統動態學 ； 供應鏈 ； 模糊數 ； 模糊運算

並列摘要

Normalization of military spare parts supply and timely repair are the key factors to maintain the effectiveness of weapon equipments. Once the supply is not enough to cover the demand that will result in reduction of equipment availability, and affect the execution of military combat readiness. Because the national defense budgets are limited, it is an important issues that how to strike a balance between national defense capability and resources utilization. Therefore, the purposes of this study is that after decision-makers can control the allocation of national defense budget, the degree of the equipment reliability was impacted by the parts supply, which provide the high-level military leader as a reference for setting equipment availability. This study uses the concept of system dynamics to construct a military spare parts supply chain model. Further, fuzzy arithmetic operations was used to address the factors of uncertainty in the demand, allocated time, and budget allocation as well as improve the shortcoming of the traditional system dynamics with using crisp value. It with lead to a more refined overall model. The results of this study indicated that the ARIMA model can fit the trend of military spare parts demand. When based on the mode of demand-oriented with budget allocation, the equipment can be maintained at above the ministerial standard (85%). If based on mode of supply-driven, the equipment in the target year will be lower than the ministerial standard after 349 days. If it would like to maintain the existing ministerial standard, the budget must be increased 3.64%, otherwise, the ministerial standard need to be adjusted or adopt other maintenance behavior for maintain the national defense capability. This message will show strength of relationship between budget allocation and equipment availability for the high-level military leader, to provide the Logistics Readiness as a reference for future.

並列關鍵字

System Dynamics ； Supply Chain ； Fuzzy Numbers ； Fuzzy Arithmetic