我國人口結構變動與中共威脅提升對政府預算配置之影響

The Impact of Change of Population Structure and Promotion of China's Threat on the Allocation of Central Government Budget in Taiwan

葉金成(Chin-Chen Yeh) ； 劉自強(Z-John Liu) ； 黃健任(Chien-Jen Huang)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十九屆 (2011/06) Pp. 78-91

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201106.0078

摘要

我國中央政府年度預算配置結構，近年來有重大的攺變，以往佔比重較大的國防預算逐年下降，社福預算逐年上升，預算資源配置在兼顧對抗中共威脅和解決人口結構變動問題上陷入兩難。相關的理論與實證研究，大多僅就軍事與社會的單一構面探討，但構面間的預算排擠現象愈趨嚴重，加上國家財政不佳，必須在兩者之間做出取捨，且預判未來資源配置上也存在重大問題。本研究以情境理論和開放系統概念為理論基礎，利用系統動態（力）學來建構包含國防環境、政治、經濟與人口結構等因素變動的「中央政府預算配置系統動態模型」，藉此模擬我國在人口結構變動和中共軍事威脅提升下，未來的社福預算和國防預算之需求和供給，觀察不同時間點的兩種預算間的排擠效應，試驗不同複合式政策組合解決上述問題的能力，提供帄衡兩種預算的解決之道。模擬結果顯示，若能考慮中共軍力成長，國防預算分配額度會逐年增加，但增加的額度會受政黨競爭和社福支出增加的排擠而減少。

關鍵字

環境變動 ； 社福預算 ； 國防預算 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

The allocation structure of annual budget of the central government in Taiwan, had a significant change in recent years, defense budget which accounted for the significant proportion had reduced previously, under the gap of military force is getting worse between Taiwan and China and social and welfare Budget has been increased, forms the dilemma of resource allocation. The related theories and researches are explored on only one or two factors of politics, military, economics, or society, but the effect of crowding-out between the dimensions of budgets exists, and the analysis just focuses on the past and the present situations. However, changes of inside and outside the environment in the future will be inevitably the aggravating, and it predicts allocation of resources in the future is an important issue. This paper is based on the contingent theory and open system concept, using system dynamics to construct ”a system dynamics model of forecasting on the allocation of government budget in Taiwan”, including changes of factors of defense environment, politics, economics, and population structure, in order to simulate the allocation of government budget and the growth of military force in the future in Taiwan. It observes social welfare expenditure crowding-out effect on the defense budget under the aging population structure and the strong political party competition. Simulation results show that, if we can consider the growth of military force in China, the amount of defense budget allocation has been gradually increased yearly in Taiwan. However, the increasing amount has been reduced by crowding-out from competition of political parties and increase of social welfare expenditure.

並列關鍵字

Environmental Change ； Social and Welfare Budget ； Defense Budge ； System Dynamics