海外直接投資決策模式分析－危險率方法之應用

The Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Decision: Hazard Rate Approach

李揚(Yang Li) ； 郭憲章(Hsien-Chang Kuo)

《臺大管理論叢》 12卷1期 (2001/12) Pp. 203-228

https://doi.org/10.6226/NTURM2001.12.1.203

摘要

本研究之主要目的在於分析及探討影響企業海外直接投資決策模式之因素。在國內外的研究中，鮮少有學者探討海外直接投資決策時將時間因素納入分析，然而，時間因素不僅在投資決策中扮演相當重要的角色，而且可以提供較多的訊息，因而提升分析之有效性。本文係以台灣中小企業為研究對象，採用加入「時間」構面的危險率方法(hazard rate approach)進行實證分析。研究結果發現：(1)若以廠商特質為樣本平均數進行模擬分析，我們發現代表性廠商在4.38年內完成海外直接投資的機率為0.25，在10.55年內的機率為0.5，在21.09年的機率為0.75；(2)資本密集度愈低、廠商規模愈大及外銷比例愈高之企業，海外直接投資的意願愈高；(3)利用當地廉價勞力、擴大市場及追隨主要客戶等三項動機為近年來台灣企業海外直接投資之重要決定因素。

關鍵字

海外直接投資 ； 危險率方法

並列摘要

This study investigates the behavior of the outward foreign direct investment (FDI) of Taiwan. Previous studies seldom incorporated the element of ”time” in their analysis of FDI decision-making. The ”time factor” cannot only provide additional information, as well as play a very important role in dynamic investment decision-making. We apply the hazard rate approach, taking into consideration the conditional probability of the element of time, to perform an empirical analysis. The empirical results show: (1) The probability of a representative firm (characteristics are sample means) completing an FDI within a period of 4.38 years is 0.25, within a period of 10.55 years, it is 0.5, and within a period of 21.09 years, it is 0.75; (2) Firm sizes and export ratios are positively related to the intension to undergo FDI, while the degree of capital intensities has a negative impact on the likelihood to invest internationally; (3) The major factors motivating firms in Taiwan to make FDI in recent years are utilizing local cheaper labor, expanding markets, and following principal customers.

並列關鍵字

Foreign direct investment ； hazard rate approach

參考文獻

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