新加坡對中國的避險策略之研究（2012-2020）

新加坡自萊佛士開港以來就在強權之間生存，採取包含著「避險策略」的務實外交。2012年習近平成為中國領導人以來，中美競逐白熱化。中國透過經貿利益拉攏新加坡在內的東南亞國家；另一方面，美國作為東南亞的安全夥伴，持續與新加坡建立緊密的國防關係。本文以Kuik的避險理論檢視2012年至2020年新加坡對中國的避險策略，將2015-2016年新加坡、美國的選舉年作為斷點，分析兩時期國防與安全、政治與外交、經濟與貿易的避險因素考量與轉變。另外透過中國的回應作為避險策略的成效評估，藉此觀察被避險國的應對。研究發現，國防與安全、政治與外交上的避險具有相似性，美國的亞太政策、南海議題等外部因素直接影響避險空間，經濟與貿易則必須同時考量外部與內部因素，並與政治與國防上的互動習習相關。透過中國的回應亦可發現，新加坡的避險成效主要關鍵仍為外部因素。中國採取理解小國避險意圖，增強對另一霸權的針對性，以及與避險國在東協集體影響力上角力，採取多元手段以應對小國的避險。

關鍵字

新加坡；中國；避險策略；新中關係；東協

並列摘要

Singapore government adopts a pragmatic diplomacy that includes "hedging strategy" because she has survived between the great powers since Stamford Raffles built Singapore as an international port. Since Xi Jinping became China's leader in 2012, China and the United States has intensified. China attracts Southeast Asia countries including Singapore through the interests of economic and trade, but on the other hand, the United States, as a security partner of Southeast Asia countries, continues to establish close defense relations with Singapore. This article discusses Singapore’s hedging strategy against China from 2012 to 2020 based on Kuik’s hedging theory. It analyzes military, diplomacy, and economy by taking the election years of Singapore and the United States from 2015 to 2016 as a breakpoint. In addition, we can observe the response of the “hedged countries” with the evaluation of China's response which is about hedging strategy. The study found that there are similarities between military and diplomacy. The effectiveness of hedging is due to external factors such as the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific policy and the issue about South China Sea. The effect of economy involves external and internal factors; additionally, which is related to politic and defense factors. It can also be found that the external factors are the main key to affect the effectiveness of Singapore's hedging by observing the response of China. China chose to understand the small countries' hedging intentions; furthermore, China increased the rivalry of another hegemony, and competing with the hedging countries for the collective influence of the ASEAN.