民主政治下的經濟政策制定：政治景氣循環理論之分析

Ecnomic Policy-Making in the Democracy: Analysis of Political Business Cycle Approach

傅彥凱(Yen-Kai Fu)

《中國行政評論》 11卷3期 (2002/06) Pp. 139-163

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.2002.11(3).06

摘要

本文試圖有系統探討政治景氣循環理論的全貌，以便於瞭解執政黨經濟政策的制定方向，其中包括：第一、詳述傳統的政治景氣循環理論其基本意涵；第二、闡述政治景氣循環理論在加入理性預期之後，其意涵及其基本預設的改變；第三、比較傳統的政治景氣循環理論與理性的政治景氣循環理論兩者在經驗意涵上的異同；第四、論述政治景氣循環理論的最新發展；最後，在結論中歸納出民主國家在選前與選後的經濟政策走向，並進一步反思政治景氣循環理論於非西方國家的適用性。

關鍵字

政治景氣循環 ； 投機派政治景氣循環理論 ； 黨性派政治景氣循環理論

並列摘要

This paper attempts to systematically characterize a comprehensive map of the political business cycle theory, in order to realize the direction of the incumbent's economic policy-making. It is divided into five parts: first part is about describing the traditional models clearly; second one refers to when rational expectation enters into traditional models, the meaning and the assumptions how to change; third part is to compare traditional models and rational models in the empirical implications; fourth part is to elaborate the new development of the political business cycle theory. As a result, we make concluding remarks with regards to the direction of economic policy-making in the democracy, pointing out the limits of political business cycle approach for the explanation in non-western democratic states.

並列關鍵字

Political business cycle ； Opportunistic political business cycle theory ； Partisan political business cycle theory