大學管理學院存活因素之研究

The Study of Survival Analysis of Management Colleges in Taiwan

吳尚衡(Shang-Heng Wu)

指導教授 ： 丁崇德

長榮大學/管理學院/企業管理學系(所)/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6833/CJCU.2011.00172

摘要

近年來，由於政府政策的鬆綁，使得許多的大學與系所開始普遍的設立。再加上出生率的降低使得台灣地區出生人口在未來將大幅的減少。面對低出生率的產生，許多的大學開始推廣品質教育吸引學生到校就讀，不過還是會有少數大學面臨招生不足的窘境，因而造成大學之間的強烈競爭。因此許多大學大多以推甄、申請入學與獨招等方式招生。在本研究當中，我們將使用存活分析分析大學管理學院的平均存活率與存活年，以國私立、區域、教師數和學生數與評鑑結果做為本研究的變數並且利用估計的結果來探討系所的危險率。
研究結果發現在生命表中的平均存活率北部系所明顯高於南部中部和東部的，除此之外以Cox回歸評估時，國私立、區域、教師數和學生數與評鑑結果均有顯著性的差異。最後，根據實證分析結果，再以淨評估來探討系所如何改善其經營模式，並提供未來研究的參考意涵。

關鍵字

大學 ； 存活分析 ； 生命表 ； Cox回歸 ； 危險率 ； 淨評估

並列摘要

Owing to the relaxation of policies governing the founding of common schools and colleges by the Taiwanese government in recent years, the number of universities and colleges has increased. Coupled with low birthrate, Taiwan’s population will be greatly reduced in the future. Facing the low birthrate, most universities promote quality education to attract students; nevertheless, several universities face low enrollment. There is strong competition among universities, such that most of them recruit students through recommendations, applications for admission, and independent recruitment activities, among others. Thus, we use survival analysis methods as evaluation tools for assessing the average survival rates and survival years in the colleges of management in our study. We input variables on national and private, regions, number of teachers and students, and use the evaluation results to explore the hazard rates. Finally, based on empirical analysis results, we use net assessment to discuss the competitive advantages in colleges, make relevant input and output variables to discuss ways to improve operations management in schools.
In the study, we found the average survival rate of northern universities is higher than that of southern, central, and eastern ones in terms of life tables. Further, variables, such as region, higher education evaluation and accreditation, professors, and students, exert significant differences in the Cox regression, we use net assessment to discuss the competitive advantages in colleges, make relevant input and output variables to discuss ways to improve operations management in schools, and offer implications as reference for future research.

並列關鍵字

Universities ； Survival analysis ； Life table ； Cox regression ； Hazard Rates ； Net assessment

參考文獻

6.Chang, H. L. and Yeh, T. H. (2005). A Hazard-Based Analysis of Motorcycle Holding Duration. Transportation Planning, 34(3), 443-468.

8.Chou, M. L. (2005). Effects of Prior Renting and Buying Experience on the Homebuyer's Search Behavior- The Application of Survival Analysis. Housing Studies, 14(1),21-39

10.Chiu, C. Y. (2003). Internationalization of Higher Education in Taiwan. Leader University, 1(1), 35-41.

24.Li, S. S. (2010). Beware of the Higher Education Mudflows-Evaluations and Reflections on the Higher Education Expansion Policies in Taiwan. School Administrations Research Association, 70,190-206.

27.Lu, Y. H. and Fu, T. T., (2007). Efficiency Evaluation of Polytechnic Higher Education Institutions with Considering Output Quality and Institutional Characteristics. Management Review, 26(2), 1-21.