總體經濟因素對臺灣三大航空公司每股盈餘之影響

Impacts of Macroeconomic Factors on Earning Per Share of Three Major Taiwan Airline Companies

陳冠洲(Kuan-Chou Chen)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500035

摘要

探討有關原油價格漲跌、新台幣兌美元匯率升貶、國民儲蓄率變化等因素，對航空公司每股盈餘(Earning Per Share，EPS)之相關影響。透過敘述統計、迴歸分析及共線性檢定進行實証，以分析台灣之三家本國籍航空公司EPS受到油價、匯率、儲蓄率的反應，並提出產業策略的想法。
研究結果顯示，三家航空公司不論短期或長期之營運盈餘，皆受到西德州原油價格的衝擊，且皆為負影響，主因在於原油成本占航空公司營業成本比重高，原油價格上漲自然造成航空公司EPS減少的現象。其中只有復興航空較不受油價的影響。長榮航和華航受油價波動影響相對較明顯，主要的原因可能是航空貨運巿場較易受全球經濟復甦緩慢之拖累。
匯率對三家航空公司EPS則均呈現顯著負相關，換言之新台幣兌美元匯率下降(即新台幣升值)，對中華航空每股盈影響較大。國民儲蓄率對三家航空公司EPS呈現正相關，符合預期，即儲蓄率增加時，企業、家庭有更多資金從事消費，如出國旅行、跨國商務活動，直接帶動了各航空公司的載客量。

關鍵字

國民儲蓄率 ； 匯率 ； 國際原油價格 ； 航空業策略

並列摘要

This study aims to examine how fuel prices changes, exchange rate, and the national savings rate changes are correlated with Earnings Per Share (EPS) of airline companies. By using descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and multicollinearity, I analyzed how EPS for the three airline prices reacted to exchange rates, the savings rate of reaction, and proposed an idea of industrial policy.
According to the research, we found that, whether short-term or long-term, these three airlines are subjected to the price of West Texas of fuel (WTI), and are all negative-related. The main reason is that the cost of fuel accounts for a large proportion in airline operating costs. The rising of fuel prices caused airlines EPS to decrease. TransAsia airline was affected less because the cross-strait policies and trade relations .The influences of oil price fluctuation on EVA air and China airlines are relatively obvious. The main reason is that the freight market was affected by the slow global economic recovery.
Exchange rate and EPS for the three airlines are significantly negative-related. In other words, the decline of exchange rate for New Taiwan dollar against US Dollar ( the appreciation of the NT) has a significant impact on China airlines EPS. As expected, national savings rate of three airlines and EPS are positive-related. When the savings rate increases, business and family have more money to consume , such as travel abroad, cross-border business activities.
Keywords : fuel prices, exchange rate, national savings rate, strategy for airlines

並列關鍵字

strategy for airlines ； exchange rate ； fuel prices ； national savings rate

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