總體經濟及房價政策對台灣主要都會區房價影響之研究

mpacts of Housing Policy and Macroeconomic Factor on Taiwan’s Metropolitan Housing Price

呂沛晨(Pei-Chen Lu)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500218

摘要

本研究主要探討台灣的房屋政策與總體經濟變數對都會區房價波動是否存在顯著的影響，而涵蓋之都會區包括台北市、新北市、桃園市、台中市以及高雄市，而選用的總體經濟變數有國民生產毛額年增率、五大銀行平均房屋貸款利率、通貨膨脹率、加權股價指數與都會區的房價指數；並使用時間序列資料作為實證分析對象，研究期間從2001年的第一季至2013年的第三季，共有55筆季資料。
透過Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析、預測誤差變異分解和Johansen共整合檢定結果顯示，房貸利率與股價均對台灣都會區房價的影響顯著外，而在長期下，都會區房價和總體經濟變數如國民生產毛額年增率、通貨膨脹率之間亦存在均衡穩定正向變動之關係，所以近幾年政府在打房政策上都以房貸利率之提高和核貸成數之下降作為主要的操作工具，使台灣的房價波動趨緩，使房價有下修趨勢以便接近合理價位。

關鍵字

ADF單根檢定 ； Granger因果關係 ； 衝擊反應分析 ； 預測誤差變異分解 ； Johansen 共整合檢定

並列摘要

This study focuses on the effects of housing policy and Taiwan's macroeconomic variables upon price fluctuations of the metropolitan areas. The metropolitan areas, cover Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung and Kaohsiung cities. Macroeconomic variables include annual GNP growth rate, average housing loan rate of Taiwan's top five banks, inflation rates, the weighted stock price index. This study applies time-series data to analyze empirical effects of housing policy and macroeconomic factors. The time period of this study is from the 1st season of 2001 to the 3rd season of 2014, amounting to 55 observations quarterly data.
After conducting Granger causality test, impact response analysis, prediction error variation decomposition and Johansen co-integration tests, the results show that the impacts of Taiwan housing loan rate and weighted stock prices index are the most significant explanatory variables. Besides, there are long-run equilibrium relationships among metropolitan housing price and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, in recent years, Taiwan government raises housing loan rate and down payment requirement to control housing price, which did smooth down the fluctuations of housing market in Taiwan and managed to make the housing price reasonable gradually.

並列關鍵字

ADF ； VAR model ； Causality test ； Impulse response analysis ； Forecast error variance decomposition ； Cointegration test

參考文獻

Kuo, T. Y. (2011). System dynamic simulation of the effect of a luxury tax on real estate prices (Unpublished master’s thesis). National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung City.

Chung, H. M., Chou, P. H., & Sun, E. Y. (2011). Financial Econometrics: Applications of Eviews. Taipei City: Shinlou Books

References (in Chinese)

Peng, C. W. & Chang, C. O. (2000). The influence of macroeconomic variables on real estate cycles in Taiwan. Proceedings of the National Science Council, Republic of China, Part C: Humanities and Social Sciences, 3, 330-343.

Cheng, J. Y. (2000). The relationship between real estate prices and stock prices: Evidence from Taiwan (Unpublished master’s thesis). Tamkang University, New Taipei City.