中共的強權之路：地緣政治與全球化的挑戰

China's Road to Power: The Challenge of Geopolitics and Globalization

張亞中(Ya-chung Chang)

《遠景季刊》 3卷2期 (2002/04) Pp. 1-42

https://doi.org/10.7063/PR.200204.0001

摘要

本文除前言與結論外，共分為四大部分。第一部分探討「崛起強權」與「既有強權」閒可能的戰略互動，從預防性戰爭、約束、交往與遏制等四項戰略理論與歷史經驗來討論未來中共要順利地崛起成為強權將會面臨的挑戰；第二部分從地緣政治的角度來討論中共如果要成為一個強權將面臨的挑戰，本文認為地緣政治對於中共成為陸上強權充滿不利因素，中共要成為海洋強權的機會則在於必須和平地處理兩岸關係；第三部分討論全球化對中共強權之路的挑戰，本文認為經濟全球化給予中共突破地緣政治遏制的機會，但是也造成未來的若干限制；第四部分提出中共邁向強權之路的四項戰略選擇，分別是和平處理兩岸關係、避免掉入西方「安全困境」的軍備競賽戰略陷阱、審慎地加速全球化與耐心等待。

關鍵字

全球化 ； 地緣政治 ； 兩岸關係 ； 中國脅 ； 崛起強權

並列摘要

This paper is divided into four major parts. The first part discusses the possible strategic interaction between the ”rising power” and the ”current power”. This part also analyzes the challenge that PRC will face if she aspires to be a power from the angles of historical experience and strategic theories such as preventive war, binding, engagement and containment. The second part approaches the issue from the viewpoint of geopolitics. The author argues that PRC is geopolitically disadvantaged if she wants to become a continental power. PRC is still left with the chance to become a maritime power, which, however, will have to depend on how she can peacefully deal with cross-strait relations. The third part addresses how globalization poses challenges for PRC's road to power. The author maintains that the economic globalization brings PRC an opportunity to break the geopolitical containment. It at the same time brings some constraints to her future. The forth part suggests four strategic choices for PRC in its road to power: to peacefully deal with cross-strait relations, not to fall into the pitfall of the arms race, to deliberately accelerate her speed in globalization, and to be patient.

並列關鍵字

Globalization ； Geopolitics ； Cross-strait Relations ； China Threat ； Rising Power

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