臺灣生技新藥產業技術進步之經濟分析

Economic Analysis of Technology Change in the Taiwan Bio-tech Industry

洪永裕(Yong-Yu Hong)

《台灣農學會報》 13卷4期 (2012/08) Pp. 336-347

https://doi.org/10.6730/JAAT.201208_13(4).0001

摘要

臺灣生技新藥產業歷經近三十年台灣政府積極推動，中草藥之需求及產業發展仍然遲滯，而且缺乏明確的發展戰略。為充分掌握目前台灣生技新藥產業發展現況及制約因素，推動台灣農業邁向高新農業發展，進而緩和三農問題並促進全民健康。本研究擬建立超越對數利潤函數模型，估計出臺灣生技新藥產業之供給與要素需求價格彈性、技術傾向等，確認產業及技術發展方向，就供給、要素需求及技術等面向提出具體發展之建議。實證結果如下，1995～2010年生技新藥產業的要素變化趨勢顯示，短期應引用別人技術，提升生技新藥供給，但藥價調漲勿超過一倍，以市場供需穩定為重，另外增加葡萄糖成一倍投入，減少化工原料成一倍投入，並且著重化工原料投入效率改善；長期應提升研發投入及效率，針對生產投入的替代用途、成本變動的敏感度、時間的長短等因素，開發其他更具潛力之技術，最後在市場條件不變下，產業規模具擴大一倍之成長空間。

關鍵字

生技新藥產業 ； 要素需求彈性 ； 技術傾向

並列摘要

Industrial development for Chinese herbal medicine needs is lagging and lacks a clear development strategy after nearly three decades of promotion. For promoting Taiwan's agricultural development towards high-tech agriculture and to alleviate rural issues and promote universal health, we set up an econometric model to estimate the economic indicators of the biotech drug industry in Taiwan that contained the price elasticity of supply and demand for factors of production, technology orientation, etc., to make policy recommendations on the supply and demand for factors of production, technology, etc. The empirical results are as follows: from 1995~2010 according to the trends of production in the biotech drugs industry, in the short term, we should purchase technology to enhance the supply of biotech drugs. Market stability for supply and demand should be considered when we raise drug prices. On the other hand, we should use more glucose and less chemical raw materials and focus on the modification of chemical raw materials. In the long term, we should increase R & D investment and enhance efficiency to develop other higher potential technology to focus on alternative use for the production inputs, sensitivity in the cost changes, time differences and other factors. [Finally, the biotech drugs industry in Taiwan should become a multiple scale under the same market condition.