印巴「全面對話」復談協商過程之分析

從印度和巴基斯坦在1998年決定進行「全面對話」(Composite Dialogue)，到2004年2月印巴「全面對話」正式開展，期間受到兩國情勢及事件的阻撓，並在2006年7月中斷數月。印度和巴基斯坦也花很多時間和精力在討論對話條件以及所包括的議題。本文的焦點為2003年及2006年「全面對話」兩次復談協商的過程。本文將「全面對話」復談協商過程視為協調賽局，並分析、檢驗內部因素與外部壓力如何影響印巴對於復談協商的意願、相關合作成本，以及協商的結果。2003年，由於印度內部情勢的變化，給了復談一個機會，而且在美國的關切下，印度將美國視為保證，同時因為雙方領導人的情況，製造了一種急迫感，而使得印度同意與巴基斯坦復談。而在2006年7月，印度因為孟買恐怖攻擊而宣布暫停「全面對話」中的外秘級會談，但是因為「全面對話」已進行三年，印巴之間也有若干合作措施，加上印度與美國正在進行核能合作的協商，因此，對話在三個月後恢復，而美國仍然扮演促進者和保證者的角色。

關鍵字

全面對話；印巴關係；恐怖攻擊

並列摘要

India and Pakistan agreed to undertake ”Composite Dialogue” in 1998. However, the dialogue did not take place substantially until February 2004. In the interim, the two countries were deterred from launching the dialogue officially by various kinds of domestic situations and events. In July of 2006, the dialogue was disrupted again for several months due to terrorism. In the meantime, India and Pakistan spent a lot of time and efforts in negotiating the conditions for the resumption of the dialogue and issues to be included. This paper will focus on the negotiation in 2003 and in 2006 for the resumption of composite dialogue. This paper will treat the negotiation as a coordination game (assurance game) and accordingly examine how domestic factors and external pressure affected the willingness, cost for cooperation, and the result of the negotiation. In 2003, change of the domestic situation in India provided a chance for the dialogue to resume. Under the concern of the United States, India regarded the United States as the provider of assurance. At the same time, given the situation of the leaders of India and Pakistan, a sense of urgency was created that prompted the two countries to resume ”Composite Dialogue.” In July of 2006, India put off foreign secretary-level talk in the dialogue due to the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. However, the dialogue had been ongoing for three years, and India and Pakistan had adopted several confidence-building measures. In addition, India had engaged in negotiation with the United States on nuclear energy cooperation. Three months later, the talk resumed. The United States continued to facilitate and provide assurance to the negotiation.