小布希政府時期之美中台三角關係的持續與變遷

The Continuity and Change of Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations during the Bush Administration

蔡榮祥(Joseph Jung-Hsiang Tsai)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 3卷1期 (2007/03) Pp. 71-98

摘要

台海問題是全球最可能出現戰爭的引爆點之一，也是美國和中國最可能發生軍事衝突的爭論點。中國對於台灣的軍事威脅，以及中國在亞洲的影響力日漸增加的兩項客觀事實，正嚴重挑戰美國在亞洲的霸權地位。因此，對於美國來說，如何避免美中台三角關係的緊張，不僅影響台海之間的和平及穩定，也攸關美國在亞洲之霸權地位的維繫。本文最主要目的在於解釋為何小布希政府時期的美中台三角關係比先前柯林頓總統時期要更穩定，以及分析什麼因素促成美中台三角關係出現較穩定的情況。其次，本文欲探討小布希政府時期，影響美中台三角關係持續和變遷的事件和發展、美國對台安全政策背後的理性意涵、美中台三角關係的策略互動。本文主要的發現如下：第一、小布希政府時期，結合國內和國際雙元平衡的架構是促成美中台三角關係和平及穩定之最主要的驅動因素；第二、台灣之於美國的戰略利益不只是可以維護美國在亞洲的名聲利益而已，而且其也是美國維繫亞洲霸權的試金石；第三、美國支持去建構一個軍事雙重嚇阻的戰略佈局，亦即台灣對中國的直接嚇阻，以及加上美國對中國的間接嚇阻之雙重嚇阻會比美國單方面嚇阻中國對台動武更為有效；第四、美中台三角關係的現狀是一種穩定而暫時的均衡。

關鍵字

美中台三角關係 ； 國內的雙元平衡 ； 國際的雙元平衡 ； 軍事的雙重嚇阻 ； 穩定而暫時的均衡

並列摘要

The Taiwan issue is not only a possible flashpoint for staging war in the world, but it also represents the greatest potential for conflict between two great powers (the U.S. and China). Having maintained a delicate balance between U.S. policy toward Taiwan and toward China accounts for the peace in the Taiwan Strait, The main purpose of this article is to analyze why Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations have been remarkably stable and peaceful during the George W. Bush administration. Findings indicate that the U.S. has delicately combined a domestic dualist balance with an international dualist balance, which has been the driving force behind the peaceful development of the triangular relationship during the Bush administration; Taiwan not only provides the U.S. important ground to build reputed interests there, but the country also represents an important touchstone for American strategic dominance in East Asia; constructing a military double deterrence across the Taiwan Strait has been in the best interest, strategically, for America in East Asia; the temporary equilibrium among the three states has facilitated a stability in the triangular relationship much stronger than before.

並列關鍵字

triangular relationship ； domestic dualist balance ； international dualist balance ； military double deterrence ； temporary equilibrium

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