歷史的糾結－台美關係的戰略合作與分歧(2000-2008)

History Entangled: Strategic Convergence and Divergence of Taiwan-U.S. Relations: 2000 to 2008

劉世忠(Shih-Chung Liu)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 6卷4期 (2010/12) Pp. 177-195

https://doi.org/10.29800/TLSQ.201012.0008

摘要

本書透過不同層面的分析，檢討陳水扁政府執政八年內五項重大政策的決策過程，包括2002年「一邊一國論」、2004年「防禦性公投」、2005年因應中國通過「反分裂國家法」、2006年「終止國統會與國統綱領」、以及2007年的「入聯公投」。透過檢視上述決策過程，本書試圖解析決策產出對台灣和美國關係，台灣與中國關係，以及對於統一、獨立與維持現狀走向的影響。目的在找出領導者面臨決策情境時，如何權衡國內外壓力以及提升團隊決策品質的方法，同時藉由具體事例的檢驗，提出未來改善決策過程缺失之道。

關鍵字

戰略合作 ； 戰略分歧 ； 錯誤認知 ； 互信喪失

並列摘要

This paper seeks to understand the variations in Taiwan-U.S. relations under the Chen Shui-bian administration of the Democratic Progressive Party from 2000 to 2008. It centers on the decision-making process regarding key foreign policy issues and their implications for U.S.-Taiwan relations, and analyzes those processes on four levels-leadership initiatives, bureaucratic influence, domestic politics, and external constraints. The objective is to determine what levels of influence initiate, reinforce, change, intertwine with, and determine the outcomes of policy.
Five cases from the Chen administration were chosen for study. The paper explores how the DPP government interacted with the George W. Bush administration on issues related to: A) Chen's announcement of ”two countries on each side of the Taiwan Strait” in 2002; B) the presidential election and the implementation of the so-called ”defensive referendum” in 2004; C) China's passage of the so-called ”Anti Secession Law” (ASL) in March 2005; D) Chen's attempt to abolish the National Unification Council and National Unification Guideline (NUC and NUG) in early 2006; E) Chen's push for a the referendum on joining the United Nations under the name of Taiwan in early 2008.
The goal of the paper is to construct a model of a decision-making process for future leaders of Taiwan that weighs as many levels of analysis as possible when making foreign policy decisions in order to get an outcome which balances all consequences.

並列關鍵字

strategic convergence ； strategic divergence ； misperception ； mistrust