NBA季後賽四強攻守表現影響因子之探討

本研究主要目的爲分析NBA季後賽四強得失分與其預測變項的相關情形，並探討影響得失分表現的因子：以2008-2009球季之季後賽表現爲研究對象數據，統計方法爲敘述統計、多元迴歸分析及單因子變異數分析。研究結果發現，體型高大者並不一定能進入總冠軍賽；另外，以複迴歸方式預測發現，NBA四強得失分表現：一、投籃命中率、三分球命中率、進攻籃板、防守籃板及抄截與得失分變項呈正相關，而失誤及犯規與得失分變項呈負相關；二、投籃命中率、罰球命中率、進攻籃板、抄截、犯規與得分變項呈正相關，而失誤與得分變項呈負相關。影響得失分與得分之關鍵因素有些許不同，如：罰球命中率上升可提高得分能力，但在強力籃球NBA比賽中，並非影響勝負之關鍵因素；然犯規次數越高，雖對得失分呈負向因素，但卻可增進本隊得分能力。建議未來研究可以單一球隊爲分析樣本，獲取單一球隊之影響因子，或進一步分析主力球員攻守技術表現對球隊得失分之關係，作爲將來解析球隊表現之判讀依據。

關鍵字

籃球；攻守技術； NBA ；得失分

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between the wining-losing scoring point of the NBA semi-final teams and its forecasted variables along with the factors to affect the wining-losing score. Using the descriptive statistics the multi-regression and the one-way ANOVA method this study analyzes the 2008-2009 playoffs' data. The study concludes that the height and the weight of the players are not decisive factors for the playing teams to enter the semi-final games. In addition, the result of the multi-regression analysis shows the (1) Goal Rate (FG%), Three-Ball Hitting Rate (3P%). Offensive Rebounds Rate (OR), Defensive Rebounds Rate (DR), and Stealing Ball Rate (STL) have a significantly Positive impact on the wining-losing game score while the Error Ball (TO) and Foul show a significantly negative impact on the winning-losing game score; (2) FG%, 3P%, OR, DR, STL and Foul have a significantly positive impact on the goal score, while TO has a significantly negative impact on the Goal score. Key factors to affect the winning-losing game score and goal score may be varied. For example the higher FT% could increase goal score but it's not the main factor to win the NBM game. Another example, more fouling frequent might illustrate negative impact on the wining-losing game score but it can increase the chance for team to gain goal score. For analyzing the performance of the team as a future basis for interpretation, this study suggests that further studies should just focus on one team's performance and to gather all variables which have impacts on the team performance and intensively to analyze the relationship between its key player's offense-defense performance and the winning-losing game score.