Consumer Price Index Analysis and Forecast Policy Recommendations of Jincheng City

Lin Zhao ； Hanrui Yang ； Weiqi Tian

《Frontiers in Economics and Management》 2卷2期 (2021/02) Pp. 64-74

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202102_2(2).0008

摘要

Based on the relevant theories of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the method of literature study and empirical analysis, this paper expounds the meaning, fluctuation characteristics, influencing factors and functions of Consumer Price Index (CPI). The ARMA model is used to predict and analyze the time series data of Jincheng from 1987 to 2018, and then the relevant policy suggestions are put forward. The research holds that the price of agricultural products and oil price are the main factors affecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Shanxi cities, and the government departments should strengthen macro-control, implement measures such as safeguarding farmers ' basic income, vigorously promote energy price reform, make the Jincheng economy run smoothly, and improve the overall living standard of Jincheng city residents.

關鍵字

CPI ； Jincheng City ； ARMA Model

參考文獻

Yang Yingmei. An analysis of consumer price index in Beijing based on ARIMA model [J]. Statistics and Decision, 2015 (04) : 76-78

Pei Huiru, Sun Xiaoliang, Chen Ling. The Impact of China's Agricultural Price Fluctuation on CPI [J]. Economics and Management, 2011,25 (11) : 19-22+32

XiaoYun. Research on the Influence of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation on Price Level [D]. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 2014.

Ao Xiqin, Gong Yujie, Wang Jinting, Zheng Yang. CPI forecasting in Anhui Province based on SARIMA model [J]. Journal of Bengbu College, 2017,6 (03) : 83-86.

Chen Wanying. Analysis and prediction of CPI in Beijing [D]. Beijing Jiaotong University, 2015.